India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023: UN
India is fast becoming the most populous country in the world, overtaking China by almost three million more people by the middle of this year, according to United Nations data.
Demographic data released on Wednesday by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates India’s population at 1.4286 billion against China’s 1.4257 billion.
The United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million, according to UNFPA’s 2023 State of World Population Report data.
According to the report, eight countries will account for half of the projected global population growth by 2050: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The data reflects information available as of February 2023, the report said.
Population experts using previous data from the UN have projected India to move past China this month. But the global body’s latest report did not specify a date when the change would take place.
UN population officials have said it was not possible to specify a date due to “uncertainty” over the data coming out of India and China, especially as India’s last census was conducted in 2011 and the next one is due in 2021 to take place has been postponed due to the pandemic.
While India and China will account for more than a third of the estimated global population of 8.045 billion, population growth is slowing in both Asian giants, at a much faster rate in China than in India.
Last year, China’s population fell for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the beginning of a long period of population decline, with profound consequences for the economy and the world.
According to government data, India’s annual population growth has averaged 1.2 percent since 2011, compared to 1.7 percent in the previous decade.
“The findings of the Indian survey suggest that the fears of the population have permeated large segments of the general public,” UNFPA India representative Andrea Wojnar said in a statement.
“Still, population numbers should not cause fear or alarm. Instead, they should be seen as a symbol of progress, development and aspiration if individual rights and choices are respected,” she said.
Focus on reproductive rights: UN
The UN said that rather than fixate on the effect of the world’s rapidly growing population, the world should look to women’s reproductive rights to strengthen “demographic resilience”.
The UNFPA acknowledged widespread concern about the size of the world’s population, which is expected to peak at about 10.4 billion by the 2080s.
But the UNFPA said the focus should be on giving women more power to decide when and how to have children.
“The question is, ‘Can everyone exercise their basic human right to choose the number and spacing of their children?’ Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding no,” said UNFPA chief Natalia Kanem.
She said: “44 percent, almost half of women, are unable to exercise bodily autonomy. Not being able to make choices about contraception, health care and whether and with whom you have sex. And worldwide, almost half of all pregnancies are unintended.”
Kanem said countries with the highest fertility rates contribute the least to global warming and suffer the most from its effect.
In its report, the UNFPA found that the most common view is that the world’s population is too large.
But it said two-thirds of people lived in countries with low fertility and passing the eight billion mark “should be a cause for celebration”.
“It is a landmark that represents historic progress for humanity in medicine, science, health, agriculture and education,” the report said.
“It is time to put fear aside, to move away from population targets and to choose demographic resilience – the ability to adapt to fluctuations in population growth and fertility rates.”
The countries with the highest fertility rates were all in Africa: Niger (6.7), Chad (6.1), DRC (6.1), Somalia (6.1), Mali (5.8) and the Central African Republic (5.8).
The areas with the lowest birth rates were Hong Kong (0.8), South Korea (0.9), Singapore (1.0), Macau and San Marino (1.1), and Aruba and China (1.2).
UNFPA chief Kanem told a news conference: “The world’s population is rearranging rapidly.”
While the population is now the largest ever seen, “the global average fertility rate is the lowest in living memory,” she said.
“This is the first time in human history that not every country is getting bigger.”