Incumbency and Churn-II: India’s first MPs more than most of their peers

India has a higher share of new parliamentarians than many of its peers.

After France (51.6 percent) and South Africa (50.9 percent), India ranks third in the eight-country sample, with 49.9 percent of parliamentarians (MPs) voting for the first time in the 2019 elections is chosen. All other countries in the sample had a lower number of new parliamentarians than India.

Based on data from the Geneva-based Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), the sample includes emerging market peers from the BRICS group and the world’s seven largest economies. Data for countries such as Russia and China are not available due to, among other things, different forms of government.

Nearly half of the total number of representatives elected in India’s 2019 general elections are first-time voters.

The trend is not unique to 2019. The average share of first-time winners in the Lok Sabha since 1967 is about 53 percent, according to an analysis of data from Ashoka University’s Trivedi Center for Political Data. The spike was recorded at 69.7 percent in the 1977 elections, held in the wake of the Emergency, which led to a non-Congress government at the Center for the first time.

The lowest share was recorded in 1999, when 33.7 percent of elected MPs were new. The elections marked the formation of a BJP-led government that could last a full term in office for the first time.

“The new MPs have a novelty factor: people expect them to do well. New faces are being given tickets to neutralize anti-incumbency sentiments,” said Amitabh Tiwari, political strategist and commentator.

Anti-incumbency is more visible to people in the digital age, says Pratik Jain, co-founder and director of the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC). Information about incumbents’ misdeeds or failures can spread more quickly than before, he says.

“If the government is changed, the number of new MPs will be similar to that of 2014. If the government remains unchanged, the number will drop as in 2019,” Tiwari said.

In 2019, the share of new MPs of the total elected by a state was highest in Andhra Pradesh at 76 percent, followed by Tamil Nadu at 71.8 percent. The lowest share was in Karnataka (35.7 percent) and Gujarat (38.5 percent). Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra also had less than 40 percent of new entrants among state elected officials.

Someone with anti-incumbency gets a ticket when there is no better option, and in the end they win, I-PAC’s Jain explains. He says the Lok Sabha elections are being fought more on stories and less on local issues. “It also depends on what the first MP has to offer to the people.”

First print: May 31, 2024 | 12:38 pm IST