IAN LADYMAN: England can dare to dream! Tournament know-how gives Gareth Southgate’s squad a shot

England arrived in Qatar with Gareth Southgate leading a team that even some of its harshest critics may have chosen as well.

Whether it is a selection that is good enough to actually win a World Cup is the question that now hangs over it.

Southgate and the Football Association have had their eye on this tournament for a long time.

As soon as the whistle blew in the semi-finals of their 2018 campaign in Russia, this was a World Cup that England started to feel like they could possibly win.

That seemed like a distant possibility for much of this year. England’s form is abysmal, the individual career trajectories of some of our key players are suddenly pointed in the wrong direction.

But World Cups always inspire optimism and England’s is not entirely unfounded. Better to have players in uncertain shape in a big month than to have a group that would never be good enough in the first place.

England have a group of footballers talented enough to win big games and go deep in Doha this winter. With a combined total of 820 caps, they have players with a lot of tournament experience. That is perhaps just as important.

But it’s hard to escape the feeling that Southgate’s England need a perfect desert storm if they progress past the last eight.

They will need their key players – men like Harry Maguire, Jordan Pickford, Declan Rice, Phil Foden and Harry Kane – to find their best form and, just as importantly, to get the freedom and license to play from their manager .

England will also need a friendly draw after the group stage and as always they will need some luck.

However, it can happen. To some extent it did on home soil last summer when these things came together to propel England to a European Championship final lost to Italy on penalties.

Three years earlier in Russia, England were under no obligation to beat a team of great repute – only Colombia on penalties and then Sweden in the knockout stage – before losing to Croatia in the last four. That’s what we mean when we talk about happiness.

It is said that football teams must keep moving forward if they are not to wither. If we look at where England were when World Cup qualification ended – two real-time defeats in 32 games – to where they are now – no wins in six – the threat to the national team and even their coach’s future is very large. Real.

But not everything was perfectly arranged for last summer’s tournament. Maguire and Raheem Sterling had no form. Captain Kane looked exhausted after a long season at Tottenham Hotspur.

Two games into the European Championship, after a lackluster 0-0 with Scotland in which the opposition were the better side, there were calls for Kane to be dropped. Much of that was forgotten when the summer kicked off with a win over Germany on a thrilling night at Wembley in the first knockout stage.

This is what can happen during tournaments. Russia 2018 was Southgate’s first as manager. The previous one, Euro 2016 in France, was ended in the first knockout stage by Iceland.

But when England defeated Panama 6-1 in their second group stage match in Nizhny Novgorod, that changed. Something as simple as one result can change direction and bring purpose to a campaign.

It could be one game or even just one moment or one goal. This is what England should hope happens in Qatar and the encouraging part of that is that the first two games in Group A are opportunities.

England will play Iran next Monday. Four days later, it’s the US. Southgate will spend this week telling his players and the public that there are no easy games, but he will know that a good start – an early sack of goals against an unassuming opponent – can give confidence, dynamism and conviction that English football has lacked everything. year. And that can change things.

World Cups are short tournaments, but a lot can happen within a team. For example, Spain lost the first game of the 2010 version to Switzerland in South Africa and went on to win the tournament.

The 1982 World Cup is mostly remembered for Italy’s thrilling 3-2 victory over Brazil in the second group stage and the heroics of the late Paolo Rossi, who helped his country lift the trophy with six goals.

What is less well remembered is that Italy failed to win a single match in the first group section (they drew against Poland, Peru and Cameroon) and that Rossi only scored his first goal when he scored a hat-trick against Brazil in what was his fifth. game of the competition.

Something will definitely have to give England such a spark in Qatar. It’s hard to say they are a better side than in European Championships, where they relied on a defensive solidity – Pickford only conceded a goal in the semi-final against Denmark – which may be beyond their capabilities this time around.

Pickford is a better player than he was 18 months ago, but he is probably the only member of England’s backline that is.

Southgate has been denied the use of his top two backs Reece James and Ben Chilwell through injury, while Maguire, John Stones and the recalled Eric Dier can’t point to the kind of form they would have liked heading into one of the biggest months of their season. their sporting life.

Southgate has traditionally used a back-three defensive formation against the better teams, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him do so in this World Cup.

There’s nothing tactically advanced about it. The 52-year-old just knows he needs to put some protection around Maguire, that he doesn’t have a center half to rely on. It’s a sobering thought to have at a time like that, but it’s the reality and Southgate has always been the most pragmatic coach.

Southgate itself has been under some pressure lately. He deserves control. When he was booed off the pitch by some of England’s traveling support after the defeat to Italy in Milan in September, he certainly didn’t.

As for his future, he has been telling people in recent weeks that he is preparing to stay on after Doha. He has a contract that runs until after the European Championship summer 2024 in Germany and would like to finish it.

Whether he gets that chance depends on what happens in Qatar. The reality is that a finish in the last eight would be representative of where England stands.

There are several better teams in the tournament. Brazil, Spain, France and Belgium are at least four of them. Germany is likely another, while even a team like Denmark, which went through qualifying without dropping a point until a final dead rubber match, would see its chances against England at a neutral venue.

Realism doesn’t give a coach any slack at a World Cup, of course. Especially if he’s English. For many, a last eight exit would mean Southgate’s worst tournament finish in three and would therefore not be enough.

Fortunately, there has been no drama or controversy in the brief turnaround between the halt in domestic play and when the England plane took off on Tuesday. Cristiano Ronaldo has taken up most of the space on the front and back pages and Southgate will thank him for that.

Southgate landed at Hamad International Airport in Doha around teatime. He has a dedicated and battle-hardened group of players with him. England is a good tourist these days and will not mislead anyone.

They will of course have to prove themselves much more than that from now on.