Storm Rafael is brewing in the Caribbean – and its impact could impact the US.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Monday that the storm, currently named Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, could hit the Cayman Islands in the next 36 hours.
The strong winds could cause Rafael to reach Category 1 hurricane status in the western Caribbean on Wednesday, but storm trackers say the hurricane should weaken to a tropical storm by the weekend as it moves toward U.S. Gulf Coast states.
As a result, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas could experience heavy rain and flooding on Saturday, while the southwestern part of Florida could experience minor impacts starting Thursday.
“Interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system as tropical storm watches may be required for portions of these areas later today,” NHC said.
The agency noted that the system is expected to venture into the Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given the significant uncertainties in the long-term forecast trajectory and its intensity, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur.”
November is the last month of hurricane season, but three more storms could form before the end.
The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane warning for parts of the Caribbean. The agency is also monitoring the path of the storm as it could cross Florida
Meteorologists are monitoring Storm Rafael, which is expected to hit the US late this week
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, “Since 1900, there have only been three hurricane landfalls in the U.S. in the month of November.
“They all made landfall in Florida. We have never seen a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in Texas or Louisiana in the month of November.”
The storm is currently causing disruption in the Caribbean, with maximum wind speeds of 35 miles per hour as it moves about 9 miles per hour north.
Once winds reach 39 miles per hour, it will be upgraded to a tropical storm, but will need to reach 75 miles per hour to reach hurricane status.
The NHC data predicts the storm’s high-speed winds will reach the western tip of Florida Wednesday morning and Louisiana, Mississippi Thursday evening.
Forecasters are unsure if the storm’s intensity will remain the same when it reaches Florida later this week, but said it could cause localized wind damage and flash flooding in some areas.
“The system is expected to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-term forecast track and intensity, it is too early to determine what, if any, impacts could occur,” the NHC said.
The agency has placed Cuban under a hurricane watch and Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning as of Monday morning.
The storm was located about 220 miles south of Jamaica at 7 a.m. ET on Monday.
‘Total precipitation amounts between 3 and 15 centimeters are expected, with locally even up to 25 centimeters. Flooding could occur across parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with possible mudslides,” the center said.
The storm will hit states along the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana and Texas, for the first time in history in November
The storm currently has a speed of 56 kilometers per hour, but could be upgraded to hurricane status if it crosses Jamaica and Cuba on Wednesday.
It also comes as AccuWeather meteorologists monitor a second storm in the Atlantic Basin moving east toward Portugal.
The tropical development, which formed on Sunday, is north of the Caribbean and will be monitored through November 8 when it reaches the Bahamas.
However, high wind shear in the area makes the storm less likely to develop, but meteorologists warned that its proximity to land “warrants close monitoring.”
Wind shear could slow the storm as it enters the Gulf of Mexico by removing heat and moisture from the hurricane’s center.
Since 1900, only three hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in November, all of which have been affected Florida – but this is the first time that a tropical storm or hurricane will come ashore Texas or Louisiana.
AccuWeather Chief Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, “We are in the final month of hurricane season and we expect one to three named storms to develop this month.”
This marks the 17th storm of this year’s hurricane season, which extends through November 30.
“This hurricane season has had a huge impact and it is not over yet,” DaSilva said.
“AccuWeather experts estimate that total damage and economic loss from landfalling storms in the U.S. will approach $500 billion this year.”