Hurricane tracker unveils update for storms Rafael and Sara – as one is upgraded and the other fades out
Hurricane trackers have revealed the latest developments on two storms near the Atlantic Ocean as the intense hurricane season draws to a close.
But now that Rafael has weakened, meteorologists are now keeping an eye on a new weather event: potential Tropical Storm Sara.
The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday it is monitoring a tropical wave in the Caribbean that has an 80 percent chance of forming later this week.
Computer models have shown a range of possibilities for the system, with some forecasts showing it could develop into Hurricane Sara in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
The NHC reported that there is a medium chance that Sara will develop into a tropical storm and AccuWeather found that this could pose a major problem for people living in South Florida.
Sara could bring heavy rain and localized flash flooding to parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Florida and several others along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said, “Get ready for Sara. We expect the next tropical storm to develop in the Caribbean this week.”
Hurricane trackers revealed that a storm is developing in the Atlantic Ocean that could become Tropical Storm Sara by the end of the week
Tropical Storm Sara is likely to bring heavy rain and potential flooding to Louisiana, Arkansas and Florida
Rafael made landfall early last week, mainly affecting the Cayman Islands and Cuba, while also causing life-threatening tidal waves on the coast of South Florida.
The storm was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane when it reached the Caribbean, but was downgraded to a tropical storm as it weakened in the Gulf of Mexico.
“Don’t let your guard down just because the calendar says we’re approaching mid-November,” warned Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert.
“Conditions and water temperatures in the tropics are still primed for tropical storm formation in the final weeks of the hurricane season,” he continued.
“History shows that Florida is at greater risk of tropical impacts during the month of November than any other state.”
The storm is currently moving across the Atlantic Ocean at speeds of 37 miles per hour and once wind speeds reach 39 miles per hour it will be upgraded to a tropical storm.
The storm will increase its wind speed as it enters the Gulf of Mexico between November 14 and 18
NHC reported there is a 40 percent chance the storm will become a tropical storm within the next 48 hours and parts of the U.S. can expect localized flash flooding early next week.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” NHC said in an update.
As it grows, it will cause showers, thunderstorms and flash floods in the central Caribbean, including Hispaniola.
AccuWeather reported that the record-breaking warm water is creating the right environment for these storms to develop.
‘We still have exceptionally warm water until mid-November. Ocean heat content, or the depth that warm waters reach below the surface, is at record levels for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico,” DaSilva said.
‘The heat content of the ocean is near record levels in the Caribbean for mid-November. This warm water will provide additional fuel for any storms that may develop in the coming weeks.”
During the last two storms (Patty and Rafael), wind shear off the southern US coast has protected southern states from severe weather.
Wind shears can block storms by removing heat and moisture from the air, which is necessary for the development of a tropical storm or hurricane.
“The storms will gain momentum on Wednesday as wind shear begins to decrease,” Rayno said.
“A front will bring more upward movement by mid-week, allowing these storms to organize.”