Hurricane tracker Rafael reveals a storm’s chances of hitting the US after it roared over Cuba

Meteorologists are monitoring Hurricane Rafael’s potential path toward the U.S. after the storm barreled into Cuba as a Category 3.

Rafael is now moving into the Gulf of Mexico, but has since weakened to a Category 2 and is expected to continue to lose strength as it encounters increasingly cooler waters and changes in wind speed.

The chances of it making landfall in the U.S. are “extremely low,” but Gulf Coast residents should still monitor the forecast for updates, AccuWeather reported.

The most likely scenario is that a mid-level ridge – or area of ​​high pressure – pushes Rafael westward across the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, moving land from the US to Mexico, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

Experts do not expect Rafael to make landfall in Florida, but the lower Florida Keys could experience impacts, including storm surge and coastal flooding.

Water levels could rise about a foot higher than recent high tides, and the lower Florida Keys could see a storm surge of one to two feet, the NHC said.

Across the Gulf of Mexico, swells generated by Rafael will likely create life-threatening surf and current conditions, spreading from east to west over the weekend this week, the agency added.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the southern Atlantic coast could experience heavy rain and possible flash flooding over the weekend.

A spaghetti model – so named because it resembles strands of pasta – showed that Rafael has six potential routes to the US. But experts say none of these are as likely as the storm moving west toward Mexico.

However, AccuWeather meteorologists say it is still “too early to clarify tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast.”

That’s because the guiding breezes could change slightly later this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., they explained.

“It’s also possible that Rafael could be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and disappear into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger.

Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba as a Category 3 storm at 4:15 p.m. ET Wednesday in Artemisa province, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, according to AccuWeather.

The storm flooded western Cuba with heavy rain and produced winds so powerful that it knocked out the entire country’s power grid.

The Associated Press reported that Havana’s coastline experienced huge waves, heavy winds and downpours. On Wednesday evening, the streets were flooded and fallen trees littered the ground.

As of around 10 a.m. ET Thursday, Rafael was about 200 miles west of Key West, Florida, moving west to northwest at a speed of nine miles per hour, according to the NHC.

Forecasters have predicted that Rafael will not hit the US, but will head southwest towards Mexico

However, AccuWeather meteorologists said it is still “too early to say anything about tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast.”

The Category 2 storm had maximum sustained winds of 100 miles per hour at the time, after weakening as it passed over Cuba.

As Rafael’s threat to the US diminishes, hurricane trackers are keeping an eye on another storm system northeast of the Leeward Islands.

According to the NHC, this low-pressure area will produce unorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The agency stated that gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.

But the chance of it becoming a hurricane is small at only 20 percent in the next 48 hours and the next seven days.

Even if it does not develop, this system could bring heavy rainfall to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday, the NHC reported.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

While not expected to affect Florida directly, the effects of a border storm could put additional pressure on coastal communities still reeling from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the state within two weeks of each other.

These storms caused widespread damage across the Sunshine State, killing an estimated 54 people in total.

According to the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated insurance claims resulting from both Helene and Milton in Florida are more than $4 billion.