Hurricane Idalia forecast: When and where is ferocious storm predicted to hit Florida
Hurricane Idalia is making its way toward Florida’s Gulf Coast and could be the strongest storm to hit the state’s Big Bend region in a century.
Idalia is currently causing heavy rainfall in western Cuba, warning locals of flooding and landslides.
But the hurricane is expected to turn to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday and move at a faster pace, with Idalia hitting Florida’s west coast on Wednesday.
The hurricane is currently located just north of Santa Lucia, on Cuba’s east coast, with winds reaching 120 km/h. It is moving northward at 14 miles per hour, but is expected to gain momentum as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Idalia is expected to hit the Panama City area on the Florida coast early Wednesday morning with winds of up to 110 mph. But as the hurricane moves further inland toward Tallahassee, it will strengthen even more and could become a Category 3 hurricane.
After Idalia passes through Florida, it is expected to blow through Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.
The National Hurricane Center has warned that along Florida’s Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay and Florida’s Big Bend region, there is a danger of life-threatening flooding from storm surges, which can reach up to 10 feet above ground level.
The NHC’s latest track projections showed that the center of Idalia would likely cross the Florida coastline somewhere in the Big Bend region, where the state’s northern panhandle curves around to the Gulf side of the Florida peninsula.
The hurricane became increasingly powerful, and uncertainty about its course as it turned northward across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico caused about 14 million Florida residents to be warned about hurricane and tropical storms.
Authorities say Idalia’s greatest threat to human life comes from rising walls of seawater that are driven inland by high winds, flooding low-lying coastal areas.
Storm surge warnings have been posted for hundreds of miles of shoreline, from the Sarasota area north through Tampa to the Indian Pass sport fishing port on the west side of Apalachicola Bay.
“Get ready for this,” Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said at a news briefing Monday.
Idalia is expected to reach a Category 3 strength — classified as a major hurricane — on the Saffir-Simpson five-step wind scale by the time it makes landfall in Florida on Wednesday, the NHC said.
It would be the fourth major hurricane to hit Florida in the past seven years, following Irma in 2017, Michael in 2018 and Ian, which peaked at a Category 5 in September last year.
The NHC said Idalia raced about 84 miles from Cuba’s western tip as it crept north, with maximum sustained winds of 75 miles per hour.
Map shows storm surge risk along Florida coast
A chart shows the risks for Florida residents from Hurricane Idalia
A chart shows the risks to Florida residents from Hurricane Idalia in terms of winds
The NHC has released a chart showing the expected wind speed due to Hurricane Idalia
This image shows how the south coast of Florida will be affected by hurricane-force winds
Florida residents loaded up sandbags and evacuated from homes in low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast as Hurricane Idalia is expected to hit Florida with hurricane-force winds as late as Tuesday.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 46 counties, a broad area spanning the northern half of the state from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast.
The state has mobilized 1,100 National Guard members, who have 2,400 high-water vehicles and 12 aircraft at their disposal for rescue and recovery efforts.
Tampa International Airport and St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said they would close Tuesday, and Sunrail commuter rail service in Orlando was suspended.
DeSantis warned of a “major impact” on the state and pointed to the possibility of Idalia becoming a Category 3 hurricane.
“The property — we can rebuild someone’s house,” DeSantis said at a news conference Monday. “However, you can’t ring the bell if someone remains in danger and goes into battle with Mother Nature.”
DeSantis said the Florida Department of Transportation would waive tolls on highways in the Tampa and Big Bend areas beginning at 4 a.m. Tuesday to ease the burden on people in the storm’s path.
This chart shows the increased risk of flash flooding due to Hurricane Idalia
The eye of the storm: Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to develop into a hurricane on Monday, bringing life-threatening and potentially catastrophic storm surges, gusty winds and flooding rainfall to Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 3 storm from Tuesday through Wednesday. Pictured: A view of Earth from space shows Hurricane Franklin east of Florida and Tropical Storm Idalia in the Gulf of Mexico as it approaches Florida
Families in Bellview, Florida are filling sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Idalia
Collier County employees fill sandbags for residents as they prepare for Idalia in Naples’ North Collier Regional Park
Large parts of Florida’s west coast are at risk from storm surges and flooding. Evacuation orders have been issued in 21 counties with mandatory orders for some people in eight of those counties.
Many of the announcements were aimed at people in low-lying and coastal areas, those living in structures such as mobile homes and factory homes, recreational vehicles and boats, and those who would be vulnerable in the event of a power outage.
Pasco and Levy counties, located north of Tampa, both ordered mandatory evacuations for some residents. In Levy County, officials said Cedar Key residents should evacuate the island Tuesday night because storm surges would make the bridges impassable.
“Once the storm surge rolls in, help may not be available to reach you,” the county said in a public advisory.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami on Monday issued a hurricane warning from Longboat Key in the Sarasota area to the Holocene River, beyond Tampa Bay.
Many school districts along the Gulf Coast said they would be closed Tuesday and Wednesday. Several colleges and universities said they would close their campuses on Tuesday, including the University of Florida in Gainesville.
“They told us that our student house is especially prone to flooding,” says Erin Amiss, a student at Eckerd College in St. Petersburg.
MacDill Air Force Base, located on Tampa Bay, is preparing to evacuate several aircraft and began a mandatory evacuation Monday morning for personnel living in local counties, the Air Force said in a statement.
Grace Cruz, a Tampa resident who has lived in the state for more than 40 years, has put away the patio furniture, filled her car with gas and loaded sandbags. She was concerned about the tens of thousands of new Florida residents who had never experienced a hurricane before, and she had some advice for them.
“If you’re planning to leave, start ahead because of traffic,” Cruz said. ‘No joke. It’s terrible.’
As Gulf Coast residents packed up their cars or pulled out generators in case of power outages, state officials warned of possible fuel contamination at dozens of gas stations.
President Joe Biden spoke with DeSantis Monday morning and told the Florida governor that he had approved a declaration of emergency for the state, the White House said in a press release. DeSantis is running for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Southwest Florida is still recovering from Hurricane Ian, which killed nearly 150 people last year. The Category 5 hurricane damaged 52,000 structures, of which nearly 20,000 were destroyed or severely damaged.
So far, the US East Coast has been spared from cyclones this year. But earlier this month, Tropical Storm Hilary in the West caused widespread flooding, mudslides and road closures in Mexico, California, Nevada and to the north.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently said the 2023 hurricane season would be much busier than initially predicted, in part because of extremely warm ocean temperatures. The season runs through November 30, with August and September usually being the peak.