Hungary’s loyalties tested as Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on

World
By William

Hungarian populist leader Viktor Orban has been playing the West against Russia and China for years, but as the war in Ukraine continues, the pressure is mounting, analysts say.

“The Hungarian government continues to maintain close relations with Russia and support the Russian war machine in various economic ways,” US Ambassador David Pressman said on April 12.

Washington backed up these harsh words by unveiling sanctions against the Budapest-based, Russia-affiliated International Investment Bank and three of its directors.

The measures marked a new low in relations between Hungary and its Western partners. However, worse could come.

Reports suggest the announced measures are a shot across Budapest’s bow, designed to deter the European Union and NATO country from turning away from Russia and China.

And Hungary’s persistent refusal to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership is seen as the trigger.

“With this action,” said Pressman, “the United States is showing that we will take action in response to Hungary’s choices.”

Hungary welcomed Ukrainian refugees after the outbreak of war, but maintains friendly ties with Russia [File: Bernadett Szabo/Reuters]

Orban has for years resisted or evaded what he calls the dictatorship of Washington and Brussels.

His stance and Hungary’s corruption and weak rule of law have resulted in billions in funding being frozen as the EU tries to get him to play football.

But while the Hungarian leader basks in his reputation as a troublemaker, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised the stakes.

However, Orban has doubled down and refuses to break with Russian President Vladimir Putin. And amid growing tensions, his province is now blocking NATO expansion, along with Turkey.

Following Ankara, Hungary ratified Finland’s membership at the end of March, after a seven-month delay. But Sweden is still waiting for the green light from the pair.

Budapest has said that parliament, which acts as a stamp for the prime minister in other cases, is refusing ratification over Swedish criticism of the Hungarian government.

Orban’s spokesman adhered strictly to this script when he told Al Jazeera that the prime minister has clearly stated that Sweden should eventually be admitted to NATO.

Parliament’s hesitation is due to “a declared and openly hostile attitude [that] has been going on for years,” said Zoltan Kovacs.

He also suggested that Swedish officials have been urging the EU to cut funds for Budapest to “press the Hungarian government to submit”.

However, Kovacs did not respond to questions about alternative theories about the reasons for the delay, nor the possible effect on relations with NATO partners.

But Daniel Hegedus of the US German Marshall Fund suggests there are several factors behind the gamble.

Orban hopes to show EU partners that their criticism of Hungary has a political cost, and also convince them to release the funds again, Hegedus said.

But there is also a school of thought that Orban’s growing criminal record is the result of a long-held and overarching belief that the power of the West is waning.

In other words, while Hungary needs the EU and NATO to secure its sovereignty, Orban sees illiberal giants like China, Russia and Turkey as the future, Hegedus argued.

“It’s a long-term investment,” he told Al Jazeera. He is providing a strategic service to Russia through these small interventions. He also keeps Turkey aware that Hungary is a credible partner ready to take a beating to support it.”

Hungary Russia bank
The headquarters of the International Investment Bank in Budapest, Hungary [Bernadett Szabo/Reuters]

Orbán’s Western partners have tolerated his disruptions since he came to power in 2010, either because they still believe Budapest is a loyal partner at heart or because the EU and NATO have few resources to rein in him .

The EU and the US have long warned of alarming levels of politically related corruption in Hungary and concerns about the state of democracy and the rule of law. Brussels has suspended billions in EU funding in an attempt to push Orbán to solve these problems.

But at the same time, diplomats in Brussels have suggested that while Orban champions the welfare of his constituents at home, he usually joins in when it comes down to it.

Meanwhile, he has been much more cautious about questioning NATO policy.

But after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they begin to wonder where his loyalties lie.

Budapest has pushed for exceptions to EU sanctions against Russian energy, even agreeing to a new deal in April to deepen ties. Financial aid to Ukraine has also been delayed and Orban has refused to allow weapons to travel through his country en route to Kiev.

To top it off, the delay in ratifying Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership has raised concerns about Budapest’s loyalty to the alliance, raising tensions.

“There is a clear communications war against the US,” warned István Ujhelyi, a member of the European Parliament from the opposition Socialist Party. “Our Western allies trust us less and less and now. The government has effectively isolated itself within the transatlantic alliance.”

Amid rising temperatures, Hegedus warned that Budapest is overplaying its hand.

“The EU countries have ignored Hungary’s opinion on Putin’s arrest warrant and 17 of them have joined the lawsuit against Orbán’s LGBT law,” he said. “That suggests that Hungary’s hopes of forcing its partners to withdraw are not working.”

NATO is beginning to show a similar indifference.

For five years Orban had successfully blocked high-level meetings with Ukraine, citing claims of ill-treatment of the neighboring country’s Hungarian minority, but the alliance convened the NATO-Ukraine Committee in early April.

US sanctions test Hungary’s loyalty

The US sanctions are the clearest signal yet that Hungary is now seen in a new light in Western capitals.

The IIB was a clear target. It was controversially invited to Budapest in 2019 and has since been viewed by Western security services as a Russian spy center.

However, Washington is reportedly preparing further measures, which will target Orbán’s government itself.

A source at an institution linked to US security structures, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that Washington has been working to target members of the government under the Magnitsky Act — a model of sanctions targeting human rights abusers or those who involved in major corruption – for several months.

The likely targets, they suggested, would be oligarchs considered Orban’s “bagmen,” as well as government officials.

“This is a small but very important diplomatic signal to Hungary that there is a limit to how long they will tolerate the separated paths policy,” said Attila Mesterhazy, a former MP and president of NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly. “In live situations, they don’t like someone playing with security vulnerabilities.”

Due to the mounting pressure, Orban reacted quickly.

Just a day after the sanctions were revealed, Kovacs announced Hungary’s withdrawal from the IIB.

“They got the message,” Mesterhazy remarked.

Budapest is also expected to soon ratify Sweden’s NATO membership. Turkey is expected to do so after the elections in May, and Hungary is unlikely to be alone on such a crucial issue.

“That would not be sustainable,” says Hegedus. “It would amount to suicide in foreign policy.”

But by then, Orban will have shown his like-mindedness to colleagues in Ankara, Beijing and Moscow, convincing his constituents back home that – despite the episode that really shows Hungary’s dependence on the EU and NATO – he is a powerful leader . ready to stand up for the country against the world’s greatest powers.

And then, as so often, he will probably wait for the next opportunity to exert some influence with a casual wave of his EU or NATO veto.

“If he meets a brick wall, he retreats,” Mesterhazy said. “And then he starts again.”

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