To understand how Putin will react to the humiliation inflicted on him by the Wagner Group mutiny, it is worth bearing in mind two very revealing encounters he had with a radio host named Alexei Venediktov, one of Russia’s most independent and perceptive media commentators.
At the first meeting, just after the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia, Venediktov spent two hours talking to Putin, drinking white wine and discussing the conflict. ‘Than [Putin] says, ‘Listen, you were a history teacher. What will they write about me in the school books?’ Venediktov recalls.
Initially unnerved by the question, he recovers by listing some key events from Putin’s first two terms in office.
Putin, clearly annoyed, says, “That’s all?” Six years later, in 2014, Venediktov – along with a bunch of other editors – is invited to meet with Putin in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea.
Putin greets everyone in turn and, when he reaches Venediktov, says: “And now?” When he notices that Venediktov is completely at his wit’s end, he says: “The textbooks.”
The 24 hours that rocked Russia: Humiliated, Putin’s instinct will be to launch a purge on his enemies
In the early hours of the uprising on Saturday morning, Putin made an emergency speech to the nation and the tone was strikingly different from anything he has ever said before.
To say the Russian leader is obsessed with his legacy is like saying Liverpool fans would enjoy an away win over Manchester City. And so no one will be outraged anymore about the deal with the devil he had to make on Saturday evening to prevent Wagner’s troops from reaching Moscow.
In a sense, Putin has won, inasmuch as he has not lost his throne and defused a full-scale civil war. But that victory came at a huge cost. Putin’s signature demeanor has always been one of macho swagger and his main appeal is that of the ruthless tough guy ready to fight Russia’s enemies wherever they rear their ugly heads.
Putin’s roar will undoubtedly continue. But Wagner’s mutiny — and Putin’s cowardly capitulation to the rebels’ demands — undermined his credibility in bringing down the Russian people.
In the early hours of the uprising on Saturday morning, Putin made an emergency speech to the nation and the tone was strikingly different from anything he has ever said before.
Yes, he described Yevgeny Prigozhin – leader of the Wagner mercenaries – as a “traitor” who had “stabbed Russia in the back,” but in an unprecedented move, Putin felt compelled to invoke the idea of Russian national unity.
‘We are fighting for the lives and safety of our people; for our sovereignty and independence; for the right to remain Russia, a state with a thousand-year history,” he said. “This battle, in which the fate of our people will be decided, requires all our forces to be united; unity, consolidation and responsibility.’
Gone was the downplaying of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a war. In Putin’s new story, Russia is fighting for its life.
But Wagner’s mutiny has made Putin more credible with the downing of the Russian people. Pictured: Soldiers of the Wagner Group of the Private Military Company (PMC) pose with a local girl
“We will protect our people and our state from all threats, including internal treason,” he vowed. “What we’re dealing with is betrayal.”
But just hours after uttering those words, Putin officially pardoned the 25,000 Wagner troops who had occupied the headquarters of the Russian Army’s Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, and allowed their leader to be driven into exile .
As Prigozhin’s procession made its way through the streets of Rostov, it was cheered by large crowds chanting, “Wagner! Wagner!’ Hours later, the same mob taunted Russian police as they rode in to fill the power vacuum.
That cheer for the mutineers and taunts for the police will echo in Putin’s mind today.
The Russian people, after two decades of repression and a relentless diet of state propaganda, have been remarkably reluctant to take to the streets to protest the war.
But when an armed rebel known for wielding power — including fierce criticism of the Kremlin’s military incompetence — seized control of the region’s military headquarters, not only did he face no resistance from the police, army or the National Guard, but was also wildly applauded by the local citizens.
Naturally, Putin’s instinct will be to step harder and harder. After all, we are talking about an ex-KGB man whose hallmark is paranoia. How can he respond other than to initiate a purge of potentially disloyal elements in the military, security services and in his own government?
There is certainly a precedent. Reinstated as a national hero by Putin, Stalin launched a purge of the armed forces between 1937 and 1939, in which three of five marshals, 13 of 15 army commanders, eight of nine admirals, 50 of 57 army commanders were executed and imprisoned. corps commanders, 154 of 186 division commanders, 16 of 16 army commissars, and 25 of 28 army corps commissars.
That devastating act of self-harm crippled the Red Army and Navy on the eve of World War II — and, incredibly, was followed by more purges of officers at the height of the war itself.
Someone like Putin, obsessed with his place in history, will not miss the parallel between the Wagner mutiny and the mass desertions of the Tsar’s army that led directly to the Russian Revolution.
“Intrigue, bickering and political bickering behind the back of the army and the people turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, the destruction of the army and the state, the loss of huge territories, resulting in tragedy and civil war,” Putin said in a statement. Emergency address of Saturday, recalling the lessons of 1917.
‘Russians killed Russians; brothers kill brothers. Its beneficiaries were various politically fortunate soldiers and foreign powers who divided and tore the country into pieces.’
It is the prospect of a 21st century version of this bloody internal struggle that will keep Putin awake at night.
As he sees it, he leads an apocalyptic battle against evil forces both outside and inside Russia, with the very existence of Russia itself at stake. Some Russians might even agree with him.
But for many members of the country’s elite — mostly well-educated, well-traveled, highly intelligent people — the truth is clear: Putin has led the country into an unnecessary and disastrous war, which has isolated Russia at best and left an increasingly helpless economic and political vassal of China; and, at worst, plunge it into chaos and civil war.
Now his last claim to legitimacy – his ability to maintain Russia’s internal security – is in tatters.
Does this mean that Putin is about to fall? At the moment that is unlikely – not least because any new leader would face the economic fallout, anger and guilt that will come with the end of the war.
Moreover, Wagner’s mutiny has shown that outside the Kremlin’s political ecosystem there are dangerous ultra-nationalist forces waiting to take violent advantage of any disorder in the corridors of power.
However, Putin is up for re-election on March 17, 2024. Most Russians assumed he would face another victory, keeping him in power until 2030, when he will be 77.
But Wagner’s mutiny will have raised serious questions among the silent majority of the elite about whether he really is the best guarantor of their wealth and status.
He still presides over the security forces that employ 4.5 million people — if you count the police, paramilitary police, FSB security forces, and the military.
The vast majority of them do not fight at the front, but hold the line against internal unrest. After the tumultuous events of last weekend, their work has become a lot more difficult.
Owen Matthews is author of Overreach: The Inside Story Of Putin’s War On Ukraine.