How will defunct ‘kingmaker’ alliance affect Turkey’s election?

During the first round of Turkey’s main presidential election, a third nationalist candidate and his alliance may have emerged as a determining factor in the fate of Sunday’s runoff.

In the May 14 polls, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took 49.5 percent of the vote, while the main opposition alliance candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu took 44.8 percent.

The third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was an unknown figure to the Turkish public before the polls, won 5.2 percent in the election with the support of the newly founded ultra-nationalist ATA Alliance led by the Victory Party of Umit Ozdag, a seasoned far – right politician. The alliance won 2.4 percent of the vote in the parliamentary elections on May 14.

With such a result, the Nationalist candidate and alliance emerged as possible kingmakers in the aftermath of the first round – until their recent fallout, that is.

Analysts say some of their votes came from backers of a fourth candidate, Muharrem Ince, who withdrew from the race days before the first round, as well as some younger people who dislike both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu.

Mesut Yegen, a professor of sociology at Istanbul’s Sehir University, said there is a bloc of voters that does not want any of the main contenders as president and is unimpressed by mainstream political parties in Turkey today.

“Many of them have secular sensibilities and so they oppose the religion-based conservative politics that Erdogan and his People’s Alliance are pursuing,” Yegen told Al Jazeera.

He added that this group is also troubled by the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party’s support for Kilicdaroglu and the cooperation between the two parties.

Ogan, an international relations academic, entered parliament in 2011 with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) – the closest ally of Erdogan and his party today – before making an unsuccessful bid for the leadership in 2015, after which he was turned off.

Since then, he had been away from politics until a deal with Ozdag made him a presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, Ozdag, a professor of international relations, is a former deputy leader of the MHP who later held the same position in the IYI party, which is part of Kilicdaroglu’s alliance, before being evicted and founding the Victory Party in 2021.

The party has gained public support by using ultra-nationalist rhetoric in a country hit hard by its worst economic crisis in decades, and by embracing the anti-refugee sentiment that quickly spread among struggling Turks.

Ultranationalist platform

According to Etyen Mahcupyan, a political analyst and writer, before the polls Ogan did not have a significant voter base, and if he disagreed with Ozdag on his candidacy, the latter would have found another contender to take his side.

“The name Ogan may only mean something to people in narrow nationalist political and academic circles, but Ozdag and the Victory Party have actually established a voter base,” Mahcupyan told Al Jazeera.

Ogan and Ozdag’s election campaign platform strongly opposed Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party).

Their agenda revolved around a pledge to return millions of refugees in the country to their homelands and they used harsh language against “terror groups” – as well as, what they claim, corruption and favoritism in government.

However, in an unexpected twist on May 22, Ogan supported Erdogan in the second round, leading to the end of the ATA Alliance on the same day.

Ogan told a televised press conference that “stability” played a big role in his decision, noting that Erdogan’s alliance won a parliamentary majority in the polls on May 14. The politician did not reveal any possible promises by Erdogan to take his side.

“It is important for the stability of the country that the majority of parliament and the president come from the same alliance,” Ogan said, asking people who voted for him to support the incumbent president in the second round.

Ozdag disagreed, saying that Ogan’s point of view was his own. Two days later, Ozdag threw his weight behind Kilicdaroglu at a joint press conference after the two politicians signed a memorandum of understanding.

The deal contains strong statements on the repatriation of refugees in Turkey within a year, the fight against corruption, nepotism and “terror”, as well as the protection of the unity character of the Turkish state.

Different trails

Mahcupyan said the ATA Alliance, which existed for only two months, could have played a key role in the vote, but individual agendas led to its demise.

“Ogan looks like he was thinking about his own individual career without worrying about any future voter support when making a decision, aiming to return to the MHP and continue politics there. Maybe he sees himself as the next leader of the party,” he said.

“However, the Victory Party has grown its organization and gathered a voter base as an opposition party,” the analyst continued.

“Umit Ozdag has goals for his party and wants it to survive the polls, so he needs to stand with the opposition, in the same line as the party has established itself to date.”

The big question a day before the key vote is what effect this division in the potential ‘kingmaker’ coalition will have on the outcome of the second round.

Yegen said the vast majority of Zafer party voters will support Kilicdaroglu following the deal between him and Ozdag, and after the main opposition candidate took a position that appealed to them in the past two weeks.

He added that the rest of Ogan’s voters could respond in three different ways in the second round. “Some will lean towards Erdogan, others will lean towards Kilicdaroglu, while the rest will not go to the polls,” Yegen said.

Mahcupyan noted that most of those who vote for Ogan have no emotional attachment to him. “They voted for him because they wanted a third path separate from the other two candidates,” he said.