How Ukrainian counter-attacks have left Russian forces at risk of collapse

It is an outcome that few dared to hope for. But 10 days after Ukraine’s generals announced the start of their first major counter-attack against Russian troops, the road to victory is starting to become clearer. 

Clever tactics saw Ukraine’s commanders draw Russian troops into the south of the country before pinning them down with a counter-attack around the city of Kherson.

Some of Putin’s best men are now all-but trapped in the city, bullied by Ukrainian artillery and with no easy way to retreat back across the Dnipro River after HIMARS strikes destroyed the main bridges.

That gave Ukraine the chance to spring a second – surprise – counter-attack to the east of the city of Kharkiv, with a ‘fist’ of tanks and infantry punching through thinned-out defences there yesterday.

Those troops are now rapidly advancing, threatening key supply lines into Donbas. As Dr Mike Martin, an ex-British army officer now at King’s College, put it on Twitter yesterday: ‘If [Ukraine] pulls that off, it’s serious rout time.’

Putin is once again staring an embarrassing defeat in the face. If his troops are forced to pull back from Kherson and abandon their assault in Donbas, it will be hard even for him to play off the invasion as a success.

Meanwhile Ukraine is hailing its successes. According to one commander who spoke out today, troops have now recaptured a total of 270 square miles of territory across both fronts – a long way from victory, but no small feat. 

Here, MailOnline examines how Ukraine brought the war to this pivotal point…

Kherson

Ukraine made no secret of its plans to take back this southern city.

The only regional capital captured by Russian troops since February, Kherson spans the Dnipro River – providing Putin’s men with their only access to the west bank and keeping his hopes of an assault on the port of Odesa alive.

For weeks, officials told anyone who would listen that they were coming to re-take it and followed up their threats with missile and bomb attacks on nearby bridges, railways, ammo dumps, airfields and command posts.

That convinced Russia the threat was real, and prompted a huge shift of men and materiel into the area. Around a dozen battalions are through to have been shifted from the eastern Donbas to Kherson since May.

By the time Ukraine launched its attack on August 29 – with southern command spokesman Nataliya Gumenyuk saying the first line of defence had been broken – an estimated 30,000 troops were stationed there.

Since late August Ukrainian troops have been advancing along three broad fronts, according to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The most-successful push has been south from the city of Davydiv Brid towards Beryslav, a key river crossing, with Ukrainian troops forcing the poorly-armed 109th regiment of the Donetsk People’s Republic to fall back.

Kyiv’s men have now advanced around eight miles south of their original position, with heavy fighting ongoing.

Another slow but steady advance has also been taking place to the south of Kryvyi Rih, with Ukraine recapturing a handful of small towns and villages while squeezing Russia back towards the Dnipro River.

The third front is between the Ukrainian-held city of Mykolaiv and Kherson itself, where Kyiv’s men have met with mixed success.

Analysts at ISW believe they have made some advances along the shore of the Dniprovs’ka Gulf towards the village of Oleksandrivka, but have actually been forced back along the key M-14 highway which connects the two cities.

Unlike the loud build-up to the attack, which seemed designed to put Russia on the alert, Ukraine has said little about the operation now it is underway – and has appealed for people not to post footage of it online.

Both sides claim the other is suffering heavy losses in the fighting without giving any indication of their own.

Kharkiv 

For months, Kharkiv has been a forgotten frontline. Not since Ukrainian troops reached – and were subsequently pushed back from – Russia’s border in mid-May has much attention been paid to fighting here.   

But all that changed yesterday when Ukraine launched a surprise attack to the east of the city, punching through Russian lines weakened by the withdrawal of troops to Kherson and storming more than 12 miles in a single day.

ISW estimates they captured some 155 square miles in one fell swoop, with videos showing dozens of dead or captured Russian troops – including one lieutenant-colonel – and overrun positions. 

Balakliya, a city that previously housed important Russian bases and ammo dumps, was abandoned late yesterday, sources linked to the Russian military said. 

Despondent Russian war bloggers suggested that the city of Izyum, the staging post for Putin’s wider assault on the Donbas, would likely be the next target. Dr Martin, of King’s College, argued a key railway junction in the city of Kup’yans’k was the real aim of the operation.

Capturing the junction would sever the main rail link between the Russian city of Belgorod and Izyum, depriving Putin’s forces in the Donbas of supplies – particularly the thousands of artillery shells they need each day to keep their attacks moving forwards.

Dr Martin, of King’s College, wrote: ‘Ukraine are taking advantage of the thinned out Russian front lines to try and capture that railway junction which will cut the supplies to Izyum, which will cause most of that front to collapse.’

Should that happen, it would mean Putin having to abandon even his most-modest war aim of capturing the whole of the Donbas. It could also mean troops having to retreat from territory they have already captured to avoid being surrounded and captured.

In his nightly video address on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also reported success in the Kharkiv region.

‘This week we have good news from the Kharkiv region. You have probably already seen reports about the activity of Ukrainian defenders, and I think every citizen feels proud of our warriors,’ Zelensky said.

Zelensky’s presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, also spoke of Ukrainian gains near Kharkiv late Wednesday, saying they would help disrupt supplies to Russian forces in the area and potentially lead to their encirclement.