How the weather forecast could predict if Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election
On Tuesday, Americans will decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris will become the first female president, or whether former President Donald Trump will win a second term.
The economy, abortion, January 6 and the southern border will influence how Americans will vote. But experts say another factor will play a big role in their decision: the weather.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a severe thunderstorm and flood warning for much of the central U.S. on Election Day, including the crucial swing state of Michigan.
“Heavy rain showers, localized flash flooding and the risk of lightning strikes could cause problems for workers and voters waiting in long lines at the polls, as well as travel delays,” the warning reads.
Oklahoma is currently under a tornado warning after intense storms hit the state on Saturday evening and Sunday. It is unclear whether the threat will continue into Tuesday, but it is possible that the rough weather could affect the mood in the state.
And it’s not just the logistical barriers that bad weather poses.
A political strategist told DailyMail.com that a stormy day can also influence the mood of voters and sway the undecided towards a particular candidate.
When an undecided voter goes to the polls feeling pessimistic, he may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on doom and gloom, explains Bradley Tusk.
It’s a general rule of thumb that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said. Storms in the central US could give Trump a boost on Tuesday
He claimed that Trump’s campaign strategy falls into that pessimistic category, while Harris’ message revolves around optimism and hope for the future.
Therefore, “If you went to the polling place on a miserable day and you were really undecided, from a purely subconscious standpoint that would be demonstrably in Trump’s favor,” Tusk said.
In fact, it’s a general rule of thumb that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said.
But that’s not because all Republicans are running pessimistic presidential campaigns.
“Lower turnout works better for Republicans,” Tusk said.
That’s because more people tend to vote for Democrats — which is also why the party sometimes wins the popular vote but not the electoral vote, he explained.
Research has shown that rainfall has a negative impact on voter turnout.
One study estimates that for every inch of rain that falls on voting day, turnout drops by 0.95 percentage points.
Rain can cause a bad mood. When undecided voters go to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on doom and gloom.
While that may seem like a step-by-step impact, heavy rains or extreme weather in a swing state could theoretically change the results of elections.
While the central US will be mired in storms, AccuWeather has forecast warm and dry conditions across much of the East Coast and the Southeast on Election Day.
This could increase voter turnout and voting, increasing support for Harris, Tusk said.
Parts of the Rocky Mountains could see rain and snow, and temperatures will be cold in the west and southwest on Tuesday, potentially giving Trump a slight advantage.
But Election Day weather in the seven swing states — Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada — is really “the only weather that matters,” Tusk said.
As for the reason, “Ultimately it’s because of the Electoral College,” he said.
‘The US does not determine the president based on who wins the most votes. It determines who wins with 270 Electoral College votes, which are allocated by the state,” Tusk said.
Therefore, a bad weather forecast in Michigan could have a significant impact on the election results, allowing Trump to win this critical battleground.
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, visited North Carolina in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. This storm could have a strong impact on the 2024 elections
As North Carolinians clear the pieces of their homes and communities, it’s safe to assume this will have a negative impact on election turnout, although this remains to be seen.
And Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on the swing state of North Carolina could also be influential, Tusk said.
“North Carolina is one of seven states that will determine who will be the next president of the United States,” he said. “You really can’t have much higher stakes than this.”
The storm made landfall on September 26 as a Category 4 hurricane.
Of the six southeastern states affected, North Carolina bore the brunt of the devastation and also happens to be the only swing state affected.
About half of the total deaths occurred in North Carolina, which was lashed by torrential rains, widespread flooding and high winds.
State officials have reported 96 deaths from the storm, and estimate that Helene caused at least $53 billion in damage and recovery needs.
As North Carolinians clear the pieces of their homes, it’s safe to assume this will have a negative impact on election turnout, although this remains to be seen, Tusk said.
Western North Carolina can expect between 0.01 and 0.50 inches of rain on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
This could dampen the mood among voters who do make it to the polls and further increase support for Trump.
Some experts believe that voting day conditions have influenced elections before, although this is less fact than political lore, Tusk warned.
During the 1960 election, when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon, voting day in the US was bright and sunny. Some experts speculate that this gave the Democratic ticket an advantage.
And in 2000, when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore, election day was rainy in Florida, the deciding state for this election.
The bad weather resulted in lower turnout in some Gore strongholds, such as Pensacola. This may have played a role in securing the presidency for Bush.