This is the map showing in shades of red and blue how Hurricane Helene could have a decisive impact on voting in areas of North Carolina that will decide the 2024 election.
Her path wound its way through red and pink areas, showing how some of the hardest hit areas are counties that voted for Trump in 2020.
And others in southeastern Georgia and northwestern North Carolina are among the swingiest, showing how even a small impact on turnout can have an outsized effect.
There are also implications for the Harris campaign. If aid is slow to reach devastated areas, voters will surely take that into account when deciding whether she should return to power.
Election officials are still sorting through the fallout from Helene’s towering floods, which inundated homes and cut off power to thousands.
This map shows the counties most affected by Hurricane Helene within the bold black outline. North Carolina is indicated by the yellow border, and the counties circled in red are those in the northwest part of the state most affected by the damage
But postal service disruptions, damage to polling places and the loss of personal IDs could all disrupt the election within 34 days of the election.
That could have a huge impact, especially in North Carolina. It’s one of the tightest battlegrounds with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris dropping out for every vote.
An analysis of 2020 election results conducted by pollster JL Partners of DailyMail.com found that the 24 hardest-hit counties in the state are overwhelmingly Republican.
In that region, more than 590,000 votes were cast for Trump in 2020, compared to 350,000 for Joe Biden.
That helped Trump win North Carolina by about 75,000. The major cities in the east (less affected by the storm) provided the bulk of Biden’s support.
The question now is how the damage will change these numbers.
Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation, said, “There is the potential for a major impact, especially in the mountains and, to some extent, the foothills of North Carolina.”
Helene made landfall in Florida on Thursday night, causing days of heavy rain and flooding.
It carved through the Gulf Coast from Florida to Tennessee, leveling homes, downing power lines and killing more than a hundred people in its wake.
On Monday afternoon, election officials in North Carolina began assessing its impact. They held an emergency meeting to roll out measures to help voters, including a website with tips for people affected by the storm and advice on what to do if you think your ballot has been swiped in a mailbox.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a fierce battle where every vote will count in battlegrounds like North Carolina
A view of the damaged area near Asheville, along with the western part of North Carolina, devastated by the heavy rains and flooding following Hurricane Helene in Asheville
Election officials are still sorting through the fallout from Helene’s towering floods, which inundated homes and cut off power to thousands.
Exceptions can also be made for people who have lost their photo ID, a requirement to vote.
One of the hardest hit places was Asheville. About 35 people were declared dead in the province that includes the mountain town in the state’s northwest.
Jackson said any impact on turnout could disproportionately affect Republican candidates.
“Asheville has a very democratic bent. Boone, a college town in the northern part of North Carolina’s mountains, “has a Democratic bent,” he said.
“But the rest of that area is pretty Republican. And when you go into the hills, those areas are very Republican.”
There are still three weeks to go before in-person voting begins. And now the race is on for the two campaigns, their ground forces and state election officials to adjust and adapt.
North Carolina political scientist Michael Bitzer said, “I think it’s too early to say what the political dynamics are, other than the humanitarian effort will come first.”
Your browser does not support iframes.
Your browser does not support iframes.
The DailyMail.com/JL Partners election model is already tilting the state toward Donald Trump.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the biggest political risk for Harris could be any sign that federal authorities drop the ball on providing aid and become out of touch.
“The biggest impact I see from the hurricane is not necessarily a reduction in attendance,” he said. “If this had been a week earlier, that might be true, but we still have over a month to go.”
Harris will have to combat any sense of chaos and uncertainty in the run-up to the election, he added.
“That has an impact everywhere, but it could also have an outsized impact in North Carolina,” he said.
“What strikes me about the North Carolina portion of the map is not how red it is, but how it is made up of counties with close party margins.
“It’s in those swing counties that voters may even more take into account their impressions of the government’s performance — and their attention to their storm-hit cities — when casting their votes.”
Trump traveled to Valdosta, Georgia, on Monday for a trip that had all the hallmarks of a presidential trip, including a briefing from emergency officials
Trump tried to capitalize on that sentiment with a visit to Georgia early this week, when Biden and Harris were both in Washington.
He was briefed by officials about the relief effort and carried a folder with the presidential seal during a visit that resembled that of a sitting president.
Matt Mercer of the North Carolina Republican Party said it wasn’t the first time weather has played a role in North Carolina elections.
“And by that I mean you go back to Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and we were finding ways for the party to help the recovery efforts, but also make sure that voters had every possible opportunity to cast their ballot, he said.
His message was echoed by the executive director of the state election board.
“We’ve weathered hurricanes and tropical storms and still had a safe election, and we’ll do everything we can to do that again,” Karen Brinson Bell told reporters on Tuesday.
“Mountain people are strong, and the election people who serve them are also resilient and strong.”