How support from Mormons is critical to whether Donald Trump can pull out a win over Kamala Harris in key swing state
Mormons in Arizona could play a key role in who wins the crucial state in November in a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormon Church, have long been a largely reliable Republican voting base, but that has changed in the era of Donald Trump.
Things could get tricky for the GOP this fall as the Republican presidential candidate looks to flip Arizona from blue to red again in order to win the White House.
President Biden won the key state in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes over Trump, after the former president won the state in 2016.
The battle between Trump and Harris appears to be a close one, with just over two months to go until the election.
Trump and Harris have both campaigned in Arizona this month, as the state at stake could help decide the election.
According to the most recent Real Clear Politics average, the race is neck and neck, with Trump leading Harris by less than half a point in the state. That means members of the Mormon church could play a significant role in the winner.
According to the church, there are more than 442,000 Latter-day Saints in Arizona, by far the largest number of Latter-day Saints in a state where the presidential election is looming.
According to Y2 Analytics, Biden received 18,000 Latter-day Saint votes in the state in 2020. If Harris can secure an even larger share in the 2024 election, it could help her win the state and its 11 electoral votes.
While Trump is viewed somewhat or very positively by more than 65 percent of white evangelical Protestants, only 48 percent of Latter-day Saints have a favorable view of the GOP presidential candidate.
Earlier this month, the group Latter-day Saints for Harris hosted a national organizing meeting attended by more than 1,400 people.
It was inspired by several other groups that held online events for the Harris-Walz ticket, and people from 49 states and Washington, DC, watched.
During the conversation, participants heard from Mormon members, including one from Arizona who had been a Republican his entire life but endorsed Biden in 2020 and will endorse Harris in November.
Republican Mayor of Mesa, AZ John Giles speaks at the Democratic National Convention. He was also present at a recent Latter-day Saints for Harris-Walz call
The group estimates there are 73,500 Latter-day Saints in Arizona who could go to Harris in November and help keep the state blue.
Democrats also had a Latter-day Saint from Arizona speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week.
John Giles, mayor of Mesa, Arizona, was one of several registered Republicans who spoke on the convention stage.
He is a member of the Republicans for Harris and of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
“I feel more at home here than I do in the Republican Party today,” he told the crowd.
On August 6, he was also present at the Latter-day Saints’ call for Harris.
During the call, he encouraged people in Maricopa County, Arizona to “duplicate” the Democrats’ 2020 victory again this fall.
Both Trump and Harris recognize the importance of Arizona and are campaigning intensively in the state.
Vice President Kamala Harris during a rally at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale on August 9
Former President Donald Trump campaigned at the same arena in Glendale, Arizona on Friday
Trump was there last week during the Democratic National Convention, where he held a rally in Glendale on Friday.
Harris also visited Glendale earlier this month for a rally with his running mate Tim Walz.