How much gerrymandering is too much? In New York, the answer could make or break Dems' House hopes
ALBANY, N.Y. — New York's highest court last week gave Democrats the chance to redraw the state's congressional districts, a major victory as the party tries to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year.
The question now is to what extent the Democratic-dominated state Legislature will try to redraw the lines in crucial battleground districts to give their party an advantage, and to what extent the courts will allow them to do so.
The process will be closely watched for signs of partisan gerrymandering — the drawing of lines that give one party an unfair advantage — which is prohibited by state law. And Republicans are expected to challenge the results in court as they try to maintain their slim majority in the House of Representatives.
But experts say it's unclear where the state's highest court will land in determining what's too partisan.
“There is no single definition or bright line to define partisan gerrymandering,” said Jeffrey Wice, a professor at New York Law School who focuses on redistricting. “There's really no clear cutoff for determining when a plan becomes too much partisan gerrymander. This is often based on a panel of experts and the decision of judges.”
Some of the uncertainty in New York stems from a decision by the state's highest court last year, when it threw out Democratic-drawn congressional maps that were criticized for oddly shaped lines that put the state's Republican voters in a crammed in a few super districts.
In that ruling, the court focused more on questions about the procedural steps Democrats took to draw the lines and spent only a few paragraphs on whether the districts violated the state's gerrymandering ban.
Instead, it upheld lower court rulings that found “clear evidence and beyond a reasonable doubt that the congressional map was unconstitutionally drawn with political bias” and that “the 2022 congressional map was drafted to discourage competition and target Democrats to favor', based on testimonials and analyzes of previous maps.
The court then appointed a special master to draw a new set of congressional lines for the final elections, which, together with the strong rise of the Republican Party and dissatisfaction with Democratic policies, led to Republicans in the New York suburbs flipped seats and gained control of the House of Representatives.
After the election, Democrats sued to throw out the court-drawn maps, arguing that the state's bipartisan redistricting commission should be given another chance to draw congressional lines. The court agreed with a ruling last week.
The new maps will first go to committee before the Legislature has a chance to approve or change the lines.
Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School with an extensive background in redistricting and governance, said he thinks Democrats can err on the side of caution to avoid another lengthy legal battle before the election.
“I suspect they'll be more cautious,” Briffault said. “They would certainly be wise to be more careful and not be too aggressive because they will certainly be sued.”
Democrats had already identified the state as a battleground for the House of Representatives next year. The party has set its sights on six seats it wants to flip in New York, with those potential gains reversing or even exceeding the projected loss of at least three districts in North Carolina after a Republican gerrymander there.
At the same time, redistricting lawsuits are underway in several other states, including Florida, Georgia and Louisiana, where Democrats hope to make gains. Democrats are also expected to gain a seat in Alabama, where districts were redrawn after federal judges ruled that the original map drawn by Republican state officials had illegally diluted the voting power of black residents.
“The parties are fighting these battles district by district in courtrooms across the country, aimed at giving Democrats a better chance at the start,” Wice said. “Every victory in court counts for a lot.”
New York's redistricting commission has been ordered to submit a map to the state legislature by February 28. But Republicans are already crying foul.
“For all their rhetoric about defending democracy, we see what happened here in New York,” said John Faso, a former congressman who advises other Republicans on redistricting. “The Democrats don't want to win districts in the elections. They want to win them in the backrooms of Albany.”