How final Iowa poll is bad news for DeSantis AND Haley: Pollster says Nikki is on ‘shaky ground’ and lack of enthusiasm for her is ‘on the edge of jaw-dropping’ – while Trump’s supporters are locked in

Ron DeSantis is betting much of his campaign on a strong showing in Iowa, while Nikki Haley is seeing her headlines grow.

But pollsters and analysts say neither can take solace in the latest survey before Iowa Republicans choose their preferred candidate on Monday.

Once again, the real winner Saturday night was former President Donald Trump, who maintains his iron grip on the nomination race despite losing by three points in the NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

So even though Haley overtook DeSantis to take second place with 20 percent of the base, her favorability and enthusiasm ratings put her on “shaky ground,” according to Anne Selzer, who conducted the survey.

“The in-depth data on (Haley) suggests she looks stronger in the poll than she did on caucus night,” she said.

Nikki Haley is the top choice of 20 percent of Republican respondents. But analysis of her numbers suggests her support could be weak, meaning she is likely to underperform on Monday

Only nine percent of those planning to rally for Haley said they were “extremely excited” about her. About 30 percent said they were “very excited.”

“Her enthusiasm numbers, I think, are borderline breathtaking,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. ‘That 61 percent is only moderately enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic, it just seems to contradict a candidate who is rising.’

Selzer’s opinion matters. She is the doyenne of Iowa pollsters, with a reputation for accuracy and deep integrity.

Haley is aiming for a strong second place. She challenges Trump in the next state, New Hampshire, and she and DeSantis fight for the right to be crowned the best alternative to the former president and eliminate the other.

The results put Trump on course for a record victory. He has 48 percent support in the poll (down three points from December), with Haley at 20 (up four points) and DeSantis at 16 percent (down three points).

Daily Mail researcher James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, saw another problem in the numbers.

“A whopping 39 percent of Haley’s supporters are independents and 11 percent are ‘Democrats.’ That’s half her vote,” he said.

In order to caucus for her, they will have to change their party registration. And in 2016, the last competitive caucus in Iowa, officials said less than one percent of new Republican registrations were Democratic, and just three percent were independent.

“Even taking into account the fact that there was also a Democratic caucus in 2016, add the weather effect this year and Haley’s lead is almost certainly exaggerated — hugely,” he added.

The poll puts Ron DeSantis on the wrong foot just when he needs a strong finish and a result that would help him knock Haley out of the race, making him Trump’s biggest challenger.

DeSantis has a great ground game. The test will be put to the test on Monday. Eli Weltman of Never Back Down, an independent group supporting DeSantis, talks to a voter in Marion on Wednesday

DeSantis’ problem was immediately apparent. He has spent much of his campaign betting on a strong finish in Iowa, where a conservative, evangelical population should match his core message.

But that is not reflected in his opinion polls, where he is heading in the wrong direction.

And his favorability ratings are falling. While about 66 percent said in December that they had a positive opinion of the governor of Florida, that has fallen to 58 percent.

His unfavorability score rose from 29 percent to 36 percent during that period.

But there is a bright spot. His supporters are most likely to attend the day and caucus.

Among DeSantis supporters, 62 percent said they will definitely show up. Among Trump supporters this figure drops to 56 percent and for Haley only 51 percent.

Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, attends a virtual rally at Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines, Iowa

The overall direction of the data, however, is that Trump is unstoppable, says Jimmy Centers, a Republican strategist from Iowa who is unaligned in this race.

“He’s firmly on the gas pedal and the caucus seems more like a coronation for him,” he said.

“If this lead holds, and he goes on to win New Hampshire, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he isn’t the Republican nominee for president.”

For example, he can count on the most dedicated support.

The poll shows that 87 percent of his supporters say they have always supported him as their first choice, compared to 67 percent for DeSantis and 46 percent for Haley.

Trump also has the highest favorability ratings. He has a rating of plus 40 (the portion that has a favorable view minus the portion with an unfavorable view), compared to DeSantis at plus 22 and Haley at plus two.