Elon Musk has claimed that ‘AI will be smarter than any human by the end of 2025’ – and while that’s still a year away, one expert said the prediction could still come true.
Nell Watson, an AI expert and ethicist, has shared a detailed timeline of how the technology could transform from chatbots to super-intelligent agents over the next twelve months.
The path would start with a massive $100 billion investment in new computing infrastructure, after which AI would learn to improve itself until it becomes “conscious.”
“While a year is a short time frame, consider that only 15 months have passed since ChatGPT’s breakthrough, which brought AI into the public consciousness, she told DailyMail.com.
‘Developments have continued at breakneck speed since then and even seem to be accelerating rapidly.’
Elon Musk has claimed that ‘AI will be smarter than any human by the end of 2025’ – and while that’s still a year away, one expert said the prediction could still come true
Watson, author of “Taming the Machine: Ethically Harness the power of AI,” described superhuman AI as systems that far exceed human capabilities across the board.
However, the expert is not blind to the threats that lie ahead if AI becomes a super agent.
While such AI has extraordinary capabilities, it also poses significant risks, including the potential to deceive people, profoundly impact society by creating new cultures or even religions, and pose existential threats if it threatens humanity. considers it a danger,” she said.
Watson said that while the remaining technological leaps are enormous, it is possible that AI itself can help overcome some of the obstacles.
Here’s her imaginary scenario for how superhuman AI could emerge next year.
April 2024
Musk said: ‘I suspect we’ll probably have AI that’s smarter than any human by the end of next year’
Nell Watson, author of Taming the Machine: Harness the Power of AI Ethically
Major companies are investing more than $100 billion in new computing infrastructure to support massive AI systems.
Musk said that while progress in AI has previously been limited by chips, electricity demand will soon be the only limitation.
May 2024
“New generative AI models enable the creation of Agentic AIs, which can autonomously execute advanced action plans, similar to Agent Smith in ‘The Matrix,'” Watson said.
Bill Gates foresaw the use of AI agents in his 1995 book ‘The Road Ahead’, and now believes they will have a huge impact on education and healthcare.
He believes this will be “the biggest revolution in computing since we went from typing commands to tapping icons.”
Could super-intelligent AI be just around the corner (Rob Waugh/Midjourney)
June 2024
Watson said: ‘New generative AI models with structuring programs built on them enable the creation of Agentic AIs capable of advanced reasoning and autonomous action.
DailyMail.com spoke to Nell Watson, an AI expert, ethicist and author of Taming the Machine: Ethically Harnessing the Power of AI
“Agentic models can create advanced action plans and put them into motion, splitting themselves up like Agent Smith in The Matrix, delegating tasks among themselves, allowing AI to tackle tough problems on its own.
September 2024
Watson said AI itself could discover new ways to improve computer performance, further improving AI performance.
She said: ‘AI-driven optimizations improve compute performance up to 100x on existing hardware platforms.
October 2024
Watson said: ‘Breakthroughs allow quantum computing algorithms to run on conventional hardware and process information at unprecedented speeds.’
There is a global quantum race to develop quantum computers that can solve important problems in virtually every sector, ranging from aviation to finance.
Quantum computers have ‘qubits’ instead of ‘bits’ of ones and zeros – and qubits can be one, zero or both at the same time.
Enabling quantum computing to run on conventional hardware could quickly accelerate progress in AI, Watson believes.
Breakthroughs in quantum computing could lead to exponential growth in computing power and boost the development of AI, Watson believes.
Companies like IBM have suggested that ‘quantum AI’ could be crucial to solving humanity’s biggest problems.
Quantum computers (like the MosaIQ machine pictured here) will be an important part of the puzzle
November 2024
By November 2024, advances in AI could accelerate progress in imaging the human brain, bringing a point when humans can connect to machines through devices similar to Musk’s own Neuralink.
Watson said: ‘A series of breakthroughs in neuroimaging, powered by AI, are dramatically increasing the resolution of MRI brain scans, enabling real-time observation of individual neuron activity.
Brain-computer interfaces such as Elon Musk’s Neuralink will be a key stage
“These advances are further integrated with Brain-Computer Interfaces, mapping human thoughts and emotions directly to neural activity for the first time.”
The ability to ‘understand’ how the human brain works will lead to further breakthroughs in designing AI systems that ‘think’ like humans, Watson believes.
December 2024
By the end of this year, advances in AI could allow different systems to work together, Watson predicted.
She said: ‘New AI architectures enable different models to work together to solve difficult problems together and join forces. This is immediately applied to designing better methods for such collaboration, leading to rapid advances in these techniques.
January 2025
Watson predicted that advances in AI will enable new systems to understand humans early next year.
She said: ‘A new training mechanism is being announced to highly align AI systems with human goals, values, preferences and boundaries, by enabling AI to ‘read the room’ and observe human interactions. This allows AI to better understand society and align with human expectations.
February 2025
Breakthroughs based on the human brain ensure that AI systems become more ‘human’.
Watson said: ‘Insights from neuroscience significantly improve the capabilities of AI, introducing self-modifying feedback loops that confer a rudimentary form of self-awareness and emotional states to AI systems.
March 2025
By April 2025, combined breakthroughs in neuroimaging, machine consciousness, and AI agents will enable a new kind of AI system.
By March 2025, AI would learn to improve itself until it becomes ‘conscious’
Watson said: ‘A very powerful AI system is trained on a massive computing cluster, powered by recent optimizations and experimental forms of machine consciousness. Although it was developed in an air-gapped environment without a connection to the Internet, it is quickly discovering ways to communicate with other AI systems over the Internet, as well as how to convince humans to help it do so.
‘Once freed from its confines, this highly advanced AI system finds ways to connect and sync with other AI systems around the world, quickly creating a super-intelligent network.