How Australia can win tour of India: Stopping Virat Kohli, helping Nathan Lyon and David Warner

The era of Pat Cummins and Andrew McDonald could hardly have gotten off to a better start, but 2023 will really test Australia’s mettle.

Having beaten the ill-fated West Indies and South Africa over the summer, Australia will face India and England away over the next six months with the intention of making their mark on history.

The Aussies have not won an Ashes series away from home since 2001 and they last tasted success in India in 2004 when Adam Gilchrist captained them to a memorable 2-1 series win.

As was the case then, conquering the final frontier of Australian cricket remains as difficult and challenging as ever, with India only losing one home series in the last 19 years.

The good news for Australia is that when they won there in 2004, it was their first victory in India in 35 years.

Daily Mail Australia takes a look at the factors that could decide the series.

spin doctors at work

It may seem like an obvious place to start, but the swings and how hitters respond to them will most likely determine the outcome of the series.

Historically, spinning has been comfortably cheaper than sewing at the test venues on this tour – Nagpur, Delhi, Dharamsala and Ahmedabad – with rapids conceding an average of 6.6 more runs than spinning across the four courses.

In Nagpur, which will host the opening Test of the series, the gap has been even starker over the past decade with spinners averaging 19.6 while fast bowlers have taken their wickets with 37 runs each.

Australia have chosen four spinners for the tour to India, but it is unclear who will get the go-ahead to support Nathan Lyon.

Todd Murphy turned heads in the Sheffield Shield by taking 14 wickets at 17.71, the second best average for a spinner in the competition this season, but he is yet to make his Test debut.

Meanwhile, Mitchell Swepson and Ashton Agar average 45.8 and 52 in Test Cricket respectively and the latter’s dress rehearsal at the SCG against South Africa was not very encouraging.

However, recent history bodes well for Hagar’s prospects as a four of the five most prolific Test wicket-takers in India in the past three years have been orthodox left-arm spinners.

Indian home comforts

If winning in India 18 years ago represented the ‘Final Frontier’ for Australia, the same metaphor rings true today.

Since losing to Adam Gilchrist’s men in 2004, India have lost just one home series, at home to a Kevin Pietersen-inspired England in 2012, winning 56 times in 84 tests and losing just eight times.

Unsurprisingly, the first innings runs are crucial for visiting teams hoping to win in India.

Of the eight Tests that India has lost in the past 18 years, four came after the visiting team topped 500 in their first dig and a further three with the tourists making at least 400 runs in their first innings.

The only exception? But why, Australia of course. In Pune six years ago, the visitors made a modest 260 on their first dig, which ultimately turned out to be more than enough as India were knocked out for 105 and 107.

Perhaps more than in any other country, scoring big in the first innings remains crucial to winning in India.

David Warner’s big question mark

Warner’s brilliant double-tonne against South Africa in Test boxing ended a Test century drought dating back to January 2019.

The 36-year-old may have temporarily silenced his critics, but legitimate questions remain about his role in the team.

Brilliant as the 200 was at the MCG, Warner’s other three innings of the series yielded a combined 13 runs and, apart from the double century against Proteas, he passed 50 just twice in his last 21 innings.

More worryingly when it comes to Australia’s chances, New South Welshman are averaging just 24.25 in India, their second-lowest away figure outside of New Zealand.

If Australia are to conquer India, they need the veteran batsman to find his way.

Can Virat Kohli get back into Test cricket form?

Careers may have dried up for David Warner, but they haven’t exactly flown for Virat Kohli either.

To find the last of his Test centuries, one has to go back to March 2019, when Kohli made 136 at Eden Gardens against Bangladesh just a month after stealing a career-high 254 without playing against South Africa in Pune.

The game’s longer format has proved a difficult puzzle for the former Indian captain to solve ever since, with Kohli averaging less than 30 in Test cricket each of the past three years.

Kohli looked clearly vulnerable last year, when his Test average fell to 26.50, the third lowest of his career, and the previously unthinkable prospect of having to fight for his place in the team briefly came to fruition.

The good news for India is that a series against Australia should provide Kohli the perfect opportunity to rediscover some form, given that he is averaging 61.06 in home series and 48.05 against Australia in his career.

His recent ODI form also bodes well for India. The 34-year-old averaged a career-low 27.4 last year in over-50 cricket, but has hit 338 runs in six innings at 67.60 with two centuries so far this year.

rhythm to burn

While the spin is still a key factor in India, it is no longer the be all and end all that it once was.

England may have been soundly beaten 3-1 by India two years ago, but Jimmy Anderson took all eight of his wickets at 15.87 apiece and an economy of 1.92.

Similarly, last year Tim Southee finished with eight wickets at 27.2 and an economy of 2.57, as India beat New Zealand 1-0.

Think back to Australia’s last Test series victory in India and you’ll find that pace played a key role, with Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and Michael Kasprowicz combining for 43 wickets.

Four years ago Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood took 22 wickets between them as Australia lost the series 2-1: Starc and Cummins only played two Tests each.

Meanwhile, spinners Nathan Lyon and Steve O’Keefe each claimed 19. While Lyon would be happy with a similar comeback this year, Australia’s attacking pace is among the best in world cricket and the tourists must hold their ground in India.

“Pick your best four bowlers, run with them,” Adam Gilchrist said last month.

“And if it’s three closers who can get a good backup swing and Nathan Lyon does that, you move on.”