How ancient hatreds are reshaping the Middle East and forging unlikely alliances. The rise of Iran – and its chilling proximity to a nuclear weapon – has driven old foes closer, explains STEPHEN POLLARD

The competition is fierce, but for my money the most important geopolitical statement so far this year came on Monday from an obscure Israeli news site.

A member of the Saudi Arabian royal family reportedly told the Kan broadcaster that, in his opinion, Iran had started the war in Gaza by ordering its proxy group Hamas to massacre Israelis on October 7.

According to this unnamed royal family, Tehran’s intention was to thwart the impending normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Saudis.

Why is that so important? Because it symbolizes the extraordinary transformation underway in Middle Eastern politics. It would have been unthinkable just a few years ago that a Saudi royal family would express such an opinion – that a Muslim country stirred up the conflict with the aim of sowing division. But that’s not the only way the winds of change are reviving alliances in this volatile region.

Iranians gather in Tehran to demonstrate in support of their government’s attack on Israel

On Saturday evening, Iran’s ayatollahs carried out their first direct attack on Israel since coming to power during the 1979 revolution.

For 45 years, the Islamic Republic has been plotting the destruction of what its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei calls “the evil Zionist regime.” But it has left the actual attacks to its allies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

This new attack caused virtually no damage, thanks to the defensive coalition that shot down almost all weapons aimed against Israel.

Allies such as the US and Great Britain played a role in this. But they were joined by two other countries for whom defending the Jewish state would until recently have been imaginative: Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

For most of Israel’s existence, Saudi Arabia, as one of the leading Muslim countries in the world and home to the holy city of Mecca, has been its implacable enemy. But now the country is on the verge of not only tolerating Israel, but also becoming an ally.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini was Iran’s supreme leader from 1979, after the Islamic Revolution, until he died ten years later.

Khomeini’s supporters march in Tehran in 1979, after the mullahs had seized power

Similarly, Jordan effectively invaded Israel in 1967 – a disastrous move that saw the country lose the areas of East Jerusalem and the West Bank. But now Jordan has also stood by Israel’s side to protect it from Iranian bombs. This newfound cooperative spirit continues: yesterday it emerged that both the Saudis and the UAE had passed useful intelligence to America for use in Israel’s defense, with Jordan further agreeing to send the US and other countries’ warplanes to use their own weapons. airspace, and also sends in its own fighter jets.

One thing is clear. The rise of Iran – and its chilling proximity to a nuclear weapon – has brought old enemies closer.

Iran now dominates a vast region, from its borders with Iraq, through Syria and Lebanon, to the Mediterranean Sea. Through its Yemeni allies, the Houthis, and its own navy, it is causing chaos in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes.

And it has turned the Palestinian cause into a strategic vehicle for its own ambitions through two other allies, Hamas (Gaza) and Hezbollah (Lebanon). This chaotic and meddling statecraft has shocked other Muslim countries.

The narrative of the Middle East used to be “Israel versus everyone else.” However, as a result of Iran’s behavior, that is no longer true. And this means that the prospects for long-term peace are bright, even though it may surprise you to hear that.

To understand how all this came about, you have to go back to the roots of Islam – and the schism within it. In 610 AD Muhammad revealed a new faith. By the time he died in 632 AD. he and Islam were all-powerful in Arabia, and within a century the country had subjugated an empire stretching from Central Asia to Spain.

For most of Israel’s existence, Saudi Arabia, as one of the world’s leading Muslim countries and home to the holy city of Mecca, has been its implacable enemy, writes Stephen Pollard.

But Islam was divided over who would succeed the Prophet.

One faction argued that leadership should be passed down through his bloodline. They became known as Shiites, from Shi’atu Ali, Arabic for ‘followers of Ali’, Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law.

The others, the Sunnis (followers of the ‘sunna’, or ‘way’ in Arabic) said that leadership should be determined on the basis of merit.

Ali was killed in 656 AD. elected ‘caliph’ (spiritual leader), but was assassinated within five years, causing a lasting rift. Fast forward to 2024, about 85 percent of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims are Sunni, while 15 percent are Shia.

Two countries are now vying for Islam’s leadership: Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. Since the mullahs seized power in Tehran 45 years ago, mutual hatred between the sects has only grown.

As a minority within Islam, Shiites have historically been treated as subordinate in Sunni-dominated countries. But there has been significant growth of the Shia population in the Gulf states, to the extent that they are almost the majority in some countries. This has increased fears among Sunni rulers about the growing power of Shia Iran. In Gulf states such as the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and especially Saudi Arabia, the Shia threat – in other words the threat from Iran – is seen as existential.

Egypt, which has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1979, is also an enemy of the mullahs. In Israel’s 2006 Lebanon war with Hezbollah, Sunni countries behind the scenes were willing to allow Israel to triumph, just as Jordan, Egypt and especially Saudi Arabia are now said to want Israel to destroy Hamas in Gaza.

The growing rapprochement between some Sunni countries was embodied in the 2020 Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between the UAE, Bahrain and Israel, and later Morocco and Sudan.

So there is a logic to the gradually deepening alliances between Sunni states and Israel. The Arab countries understand that while Israel has no ambitions to dominate its neighbors, Iran is trying to control the entire Middle East.

It must be emphasized that the vast majority of Sunnis and Shias would rather get on with their lives than involve themselves in these disputes. But it is also true that if you do not understand this division, you cannot understand the Middle East at all.