America’s aging liberals could give Joe Biden an unlikely boost in his re-election fight.
The traditionally conservative voting bloc has swung left lately, and the explanation is determined to be simple: liberals are getting older.
According to analysis of the New York TimesThe longer life expectancies of women and college graduates — about six and eight years, respectively — could turn the tide after millions of senior Republicans have died.
However, polls also show Biden may be losing significant support among young voters, with a new poll this month showing half of voters under 40 want to vote for a third-party candidate, amid a surge in RFJ Jr.
In another November 2023 poll, Trump also had a four-point lead over Biden among young voters under 35, compared to Biden’s 26-point lead among the same age group prior to the 2020 election.
America’s aging liberals could give Joe Biden an unlikely boost in his re-election fight as he gains support among the voting bloc
Many American seniors now came of age during the Cultural Revolution and “Summer of Love” periods, marking a shift in the traditionally conservative voting bloc
The Times analysis noted that the “Silent Generation” — those born between 1928 and the end of World War II — were among the most conservative in modern history.
The voting bloc was the only one that moved further to the right with the nomination of Barack Obama in 2008, with a larger share choosing John McCain than George W. Bush in 2004.
That same cohort is now at least 15 years older, and many of the loyal Republican voters have since died. In total, only 20 percent of the Silent Generation are alive today.
This demographic group also now consists of a significantly more liberal faction, as two traditional Democratic indicators—female or college degree—tend to live longer.
Women live an average of six years longer than men, and college graduates live eight years longer than those without a degree.
Instead, many of those who came of age through the Cultural Revolution and the “Summer of Love” days are now 65+, dramatically changing the voting intentions of a normally devout Republican group.
Now the “Boomer” generation – born between 1946 and 1964 – will make up more than 70 percent of seniors by the 2024 election.
When Obama was elected to the White House in 2008, this figure was zero percent.
America’s aging hippies could give Biden an advantage in 2024 while he loses ground among young voters
Biden may see better results among seniors in 2024 thanks to the same voters who pushed Obama over the line in 2008
With Obama’s re-election against Mitt Romney in 2012, the impact that demographic changes could have on the 2024 elections becomes even clearer.
In 2012, Obama won the ‘Baby Boomer’ generation by two points, with 4.3 million Boomers aged 65+ at the time.
Today that group stands at 27.6 million, which would handily give Obama a five-point lead in the election.
Among the ‘Greatest Generation’ – those born between 1901 and 1927 – Romney won in 2012 by no less than seven points.
After many have since died while liberal seniors had a better chance of survival, Obama would now win the generation by just under 1 percent, even though the entire voting bloc now numbers just 321,000 voters nationally.
Because Biden received support from 48 percent of seniors in 2020, analysts see the latest trends could work in his favor in 2024.
However, these trends appear to be countered by many younger voters under 50 moving to the right.
In November 2023, a staggering NBC poll showed that Trump had taken the lead over Biden among voters under 35, traditionally a group that Democrats thought would win easily.
Younger voters are looking to third-party candidates such as RFK Jr and Cornel West
In November 2023 a dizzying one NBC a poll showed Trump had taken the lead over Biden among voters under 35, traditionally a group Democrats assumed would win easily.
Prior to the 2020 election, Biden had a 26-point lead among the same voting bloc, but the NBC poll showed Trump with a four-point lead.
The same poll showed Trump leading Biden in every age group except seniors.
And this month, a new poll also found that half of young Americans under 40, or 47 percent, plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
In total, more than a quarter of voters said they felt the same way.
Across all age groups, that would equate to 43 million voters willing to cross a third-party candidate’s box, based on 2020 turnout.