NEW YORK– Uncertainty abounds entering the final full week of the 2024 campaign with Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump locked in a fiercely competitive presidential battle. What happens in the coming days will be crucial in determining the winner.
Here’s what we’re watching this week:
America’s presidential elections are rarely determined by foreign affairs, but wars in the Middle East are escalating just as millions of voters prepare to cast their ballots.
It is still unclear how Iran would respond to Israel’s unusually public airstrikes on Iran on Friday. The answer could determine whether the region moves further toward all-out war or remains stable at an already devastating and destabilizing level of violence.
Iran’s response could also determine the extent to which the conflict in the Middle East shapes the US election.
The issue has been particularly difficult for Harris to navigate as she simultaneously pledges to support Israel and offers empathy for the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by Israel’s response to Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023. The Democratic vice president continues to face with intense pressure from her party’s progressive base, which is extremely critical of Israel.
Trump has unapologetically supported Israel, although some Arab-American leaders — especially in the swing state of Michigan — have been unusually supportive of the former Republican president, who banned travel from many Muslim countries during his first term.
Even in the best-case scenario, the next president will inherit one of the most volatile foreign policy challenges in decades.
It would be an understatement to describe Democrats as anxious as Election Day approaches. But there was a deliberate attempt this weekend from Harris’ senior team to project optimism to temper the fears.
Harris senior adviser Jenn O’Malley Dillon predicted victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We’re confident we’re going to win this,” she said. “We see extraordinary enthusiasm. This will be an exciting race and our campaign is exactly where we want to be.”
Harris will try to further ease Democratic concerns Tuesday when she preaches her “closing argument” at the Ellipse, the same spot near the White House where Trump spoke on January 6, 2021, shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.
Harris is expected to focus her comments on the danger Trump poses to American democracy. She has called her Republican rival “a fascist” in recent days. And she has been joined by an unlikely ally, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly, who Trump also recently described as a fascist.
But she is also expected to address broader themes, encouraging voters to look behind them at the White House and imagine who will be sitting at the Resolute Desk at a moment of great importance. She aims to make the stakes of the Nov. 5 election clear to undecided voters — especially moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Trump’s divisive leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris’ team is betting that there are a significant number of moderates who can still be convinced, Progressive Democrats are concerned she is not focused enough on economic issues in the closing days of the campaign.
We have learned that democratic fear can be a fact of life.
Even before the week started, controversy threatened to throw Trump’s campaign off course. Instead, a rally was held late Sunday at Madison Square Garden in New York City that was intended as a closing message overshadowed by racist insultsincluding a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash.”
And with eight days to go until Election Day, history suggests that Trump is almost guaranteed to say or do something else controversial in the final stretch. The only question is whether it will break through.
If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Trump can’t help himself. He has used authoritarian rhetoric in recent days to suggest that his Democratic opponents, whom he calls “ the enemy withinare more dangerous to the nation than the threat posed by Russia and China.
Democrats will scour every Trump interview and public appearance for something similar to exploit. There are also multiple criminal investigations into Trump, who has already been convicted of 34 charges, that could reveal new information.
Yet Democrats are the first to admit that voters’ opinions about Trump have become so hardened that it would take something truly stunning to change the course of the election.
However, there is precedent for a banger in the last week. Remember, it was October 28, 2016 when former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress indicating that federal investigators were aware of new emails relevant to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.
The candidates’ evolving travel schedules will tell us a lot about the battlegrounds that will matter most on Election Day.
Here’s what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are competing aggressively in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. They are the three so-called “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
However, from a political perspective, not all of the seven are created equal.
Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which may be the election’s biggest prize. Harris will next head to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, she plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. She leaves for Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
What do we know about Trump’s schedule? He has planned to host at least one rally each day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, again Friday in Wisconsin and Saturday in Virginia.
But as a reminder, these schedules will likely change based on information about the campaigns on the ground.
More than 41 million votes have already been cast in the national elections. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but so far at least Republicans are participating at a much higher rate than in the past.
The question: will this last?
Trump has, of course, for years encouraged his supporters to vote only in person on Election Day. This practice put the GOP at a significant disadvantage. In recent months he has largely reversed course as he and his party recognized the obvious advantage of being able to save their votes as early as possible.
Due to Republican participation, turnout was early breaking records last week in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.
But with the Republican Party focusing more on “election integrity” rather than a traditional “get out the vote” operation, it is unclear whether the surge in Republican early voting will continue. Democrats hope not.
History may one day conclude that the most important thing Trump said in the closing days of the 2024 election is what many voters barely notice anymore: his persistent warnings that this election was rigged against him.
As Election Day approaches, Trump increasingly warns his supporters that he will only lose on November 5 if his political opponents cheat. Such statements have no basis in fact. There was no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, nor is there evidence that Trump’s opponents can or will rig this election against him.
Yet Trump’s unfounded warnings are making an already tense and violent election season even more charged. And there are real threats from foreign adversaries – especially Russia, China and Iran – will interfere in the elections.
At the same time the The Republican National Committee has invested tens of millions of dollars in an operation to mobilize thousands of poll observers, poll watchers and lawyers to serve as “election integrity” watchdogs. Democrats are concerned that the efforts could lead to intimidation of election workers and undermine confidence in the elections.
Both sides are aggressive prepare for long legal battles no matter who wins.