Herd immunity was never government policy during the Covid pandemic and it was a major communication failure that some people thought was the case at the start of the pandemic, Prof Sir Chris Whitty told the Covid Inquiry.
In evidence, Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said the choice of herd immunity was “unthinkable” and would have caused “an extraordinarily high loss of life” without necessarily achieving its aim.
Whitty said that around March 2020 he tried to prevent ministers and others from discussing the idea publicly as the concept was complex and nuanced: “Frankly, there was a lot of talking by people who at best half understood the issues.”
Herd immunity at the time was generally understood to mean that the virus could be transmitted uncontrollably through the population, with enough people contracting it and then acquiring immunity that would slow down at some point.
Arguing that no one in government endorsed the idea, Whitty said the problem was that ministers were discussing it as a possible natural progression of the pandemic due to “a confusing understanding of some articles based on models that did not advocate it as a target.” ”.
Whitty said, “I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone on the record, or anyone sensible, aim for it as a goal. I think some people tried to explain it as, “This is what would happen over time,” which I think is, frankly, unhelpful.
“I think if we go back to the communication mistakes along the way, and there were many, this is certainly one of the mistakes where I don’t think we helped the public by having a debate that I think has, rightly, a lot upset and confused people.”
Whitty did not identify who he said had been unhelpful in discussing the idea, but then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was among those who did so at the time.
Whitty said he had sent WhatsApp messages to a group including Johnson, Matt Hancock, the then health secretary, and civil servants, urging them not to talk publicly about herd immunity given its complexity and the chance of misunderstandings.
The idea of herd immunity – also used as a model term to look at the impact of different waves of the virus – as a way to quickly eliminate Covid was nonsensical, Whitty said. He said that even after the very damaging first wave of Covid, only about 20% of people were infected.
The use of herd immunity as a policy was also based on the fact that immunity after infection would be permanent, which was not the case for Covid, Whitty said, and also on the questionable practicality and morality of asking older and clinically vulnerable people to isolate for long periods.
Asked about scientists and others who supported the plan in the so-called Great Barrington Declaration, Whitty said: “I think they were simply wrong. I thought it was flawed on multiple levels.
However, he said some people in government had taken the idea from the modeling world and were “running with it in a somewhat confused way”, and some were discussing it as an idea “without thinking about it”.
He said: “It was clearly a ridiculous policy goal, and a dangerous goal, and much of what was said (about it) could have led to significant confusion, and it did.”