Less than 24 hours after California Republican Kevin McCarthy was fired from the House of Representatives, the race to succeed him had already begun.
So far, three Republicans are in the running for the chairman’s election, which will take place in a week. But there is no guarantee the matter will then be resolved, given the 15 rounds of voting before Mr. McCarthy earned the job in January.
Why we wrote this
As the people’s house searches for a new speaker, one challenge is that the need for leadership comes with pressure from an anti-establishment Republican base that is “more willing to blow things up,” as one analyst puts it .
The same factors that doomed McCarthy — hardliners demanding confrontation over compromise, amid the inescapable need to work with a Democratic Senate and White House to pass anything — will almost certainly haunt his replacement. That begs the question: What will it take for someone to successfully lead this Republican House?
Some observers suggest that unifying the Republican Party is more a matter of style than substance. A speaker who can pick fights with Democrats and publicly advocate for conservative priorities may have more leeway to quietly make compromises behind the scenes.
“I don’t think this is necessarily an ideological battle. I think this has more to do with personalities,” said John Feehery, who served as press secretary to former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois. “With the right speaker you can make it work.”
Less than 24 hours after California Republican Kevin McCarthy was fired from the House of Representatives, the race to succeed him had already begun.
But the same factors that doomed McCarthy — hardliners demanding confrontation over compromise, amid the inescapable need to work with a Democratic Senate and White House to pass anything — will almost certainly haunt his replacement. That begs the question: What will it take for someone to successfully lead this Republican House?
For now, the gavel is held by Representative Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, a McCarthy ally who became acting speaker pro tempore after being appointed by Mr. McCarthy in a predetermined succession plan. Last night Mr McHenry announced that Republicans would hold elections for a new chairman next Wednesday, with the candidates making their case in a forum on Tuesday. Until then, the House of Representatives is in recess, while the rules surrounding Mr McHenry’s powers as acting speaker – and how long he could remain in that post – remained unclear.
Why we wrote this
As the people’s house searches for a new speaker, one challenge is that the need for leadership comes with pressure from an anti-establishment Republican base that is “more willing to blow things up,” as one analyst puts it .
Many members expressed frustration that the political chaos cost them valuable time in dealing with crucial issues on the agenda. Congress is rushing to finish writing the appropriations bills before the government runs out of money by mid-November. Other outstanding issues include aid to Ukraine – which now appears to be in serious jeopardy – and the crisis at the southern border.
And there’s no guarantee there will be a new speaker next week, given the 15 ballots McCarthy faced in January. Mr. McCarthy had to make a number of concessions to right-wing members to secure the gavel — including giving them the power to force a vote to impeach him, setting the stage for what ultimately happened this week. The next speaker will likely face similar pressure.
When a combative attitude can help
Some observers suggest that unifying the Republican Party is more a matter of style than substance. A speaker who can mimic former President Donald Trump’s rhetoric, argue with Democrats and push for certain conservative priorities may have more leeway to quietly compromise on other issues.
“I don’t think this is necessarily an ideological battle. I think this has more to do with personalities,” said John Feehery, who served as press secretary to former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois. “With the right speaker you can make it work.”
There was a much wider ideological divide within the conference in the early 2000s, Mr. Feehery notes, when Republicans had a similarly slim majority in the House of Representatives. About 30 to 40 Republican members at the time supported abortion rights, he says, and others favored raising taxes. Today, the Republican caucus is much more aligned on policy issues, but the personalities loom larger, presenting a different kind of challenge.
“There is a wider gap between the party’s base and Congress leadership than ever before,” Mr. Feehery said. “The base is much more populist, more anti-establishment, more willing to blow things up. And the leaders are stuck leading.”
If not McCarthy, then who?
So far, three candidates are publicly vying for the speakership: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Ohio, Rep. Jim Jordan, chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, and Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern, chairman of the Republican Study Committee. All claim they can do what Mr. McCarthy could not.
Mr. Scalise, a popular conservative who gained national sympathy after he was shot and seriously injured during a baseball practice in Congress in 2017, has reportedly been eyeing the speaker’s job for years and was floated as a possible candidate during the previous contest put forward. As part of the current leadership structure, he starts with a built-in network and support; Majority Whip Tom Emmer and a number of Southern Republicans have already expressed their support for a Speaker Scalise.
“I have a proven track record of bringing together the diverse range of viewpoints within our Conference to reach consensus where others thought it was impossible,” Mr. Scalise wrote. in a “Dear colleague” letter announced his run Wednesday afternoon. “This next chapter will not be easy, but I know what it takes to fight and I am prepared for the battles ahead.”
If Mr. Scalise is elected chairman, there would be a ripple effect of promotions. Mr. Emmer, currently the majority whip, has announced that he will seek Mr. Scalise’s current post of majority leader, and Republican Guy Reschenthaler of Pennsylvania, currently Chief Deputy Whip, would assume Mr. Emmer’s role.
“These elections are almost always decided internally by the relationships these members have with other members,” Mr. Feehery said.
Still, some worry that Mr. Scalise, despite his conservative beliefs, could face similar problems as Mr. McCarthy in winning the gavel. The majority leader has also been undergoing cancer treatment, although he has assured members that he is feeling well and has the stamina for the travel and long hours required for the speaker’s job.
Mr. Jordan, once an antagonist of Mr. McCarthy who later became a supporter, could complicate Mr. Scalise’s path. The former Freedom Caucus chairman is a prominent Trump ally and was a leading choice among some of McCarthy’s far-right opponents in January’s race for speaker, although he declined to run on that occasion.
“I’ve had a lot of members contact us and say they think I’m the guy who can unify the conference,” Mr. Jordan told reporters as he left a meeting of the Republican delegation in Texas on Wednesday, where all three candidates presented themselves. to members. “I think my politics are completely consistent with where conservatives and Republicans are.”
Wildcard options
Other Republicans have expressed interest in the top job, such as Congressman Hern, chairman of the largest group of Republicans in the House of Representatives. It’s also possible that the eventual new speaker will be someone not currently under discussion — a 2015-type situation in which members recruit a consensus candidate (such as then-Congressman Paul Ryan) who reluctantly agrees to the job with serious conditions.
One fanciful idea that has been floated by some members is for former President Donald Trump to become chairman. In a tweet Wednesday, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said Mr. Trump’s “only candidateshe supports, an idea echoed by Texas Rep. Troy Nehls and Florida Rep. Greg Steube. While the possibility might excite Trump supporters, such a ploy would almost certainly fail. Not to mention Rule 26 of the House Republican Conference Rules, which states that a member of the Republican leadership “will step aside“If charges are filed. When asked about the possibility outside a New York courtroom where he lies in wait in a civil fraud case, Mr. Trump said his “some focusbecomes president again.
But time to choose a leader is limited as government funding ends on November 17.
Both Mr. McHenry and Mr. McCarthy have said they have no plans to run for speaker. At a news conference Tuesday evening, Mr. McCarthy was asked if he had any advice for who would succeed him.
He replied with a laugh: “Change the rules.”