Hundreds of Britons are expected to die this week as the 33 degree heat wave sweeps across England.
Climate and health experts told MailOnline that the country should brace for another wave of additional deaths, similar to the 3,000 recorded during last year’s sweltering summer.
While the mercury is not predicted to approach last season’s record high of 40 degrees Celsius, experts warned not to underestimate how deadly temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius can be.
It is said that those over the age of 65, newborn babies, and those with health problems, such as heart or lung disease, are most at risk.
However, even healthy adults have been warned they could be at risk too, with the vast majority of England now under an orange heat warning.
Health bosses have issued an orange heat warning for most of England, meaning the whole population, not just the vulnerable, could potentially become ill from high temperatures
Joggers go for a morning run on Primrose Hill in North London shortly after sunrise today
Commuters cross London Bridge this morning during warm and sunny weather in the capital
An orange alert means that the entire population is believed to be at risk.
Only the north east of the country has been somewhat spared, with the UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) issuing a ‘yellow’ alert, indicating temperatures pose a major risk only to the vulnerable.
The six-day warning, which began yesterday and will run until Sunday evening, warns of higher death rates and ‘significant impact’ on vulnerable people and the NHS.
It was the vulnerable who were the main victims of last year’s five heat waves, with an official 2,800 extra fatalities, mainly among the over-65s.
Analysts at the time said they had never seen such high levels of excess mortality during heat waves since measurements began nearly two decades ago.
Dr. Antonio Gasparrini, an expert in statistics and epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, warned that this heat wave would be no different and that a spike in deaths was inevitable, despite temperatures remaining below 40 degrees Celsius.
“Heat-related mortality begins to rise well below such extreme temperatures, and a noticeable increase in deaths can be expected even at the levels predicted in the current heat wave,” he said.
“An excess (of deaths) of the order of hundreds would not be surprising.”
Dr. Gasparrini said heat-related deaths gradually increase from a certain ‘optimum’ temperature, around 18-20 degrees Celsius in Britain, before getting sharper as it gets warmer.
However, he said the true extent of the problem will only come to light in the coming months, when the deaths are officially recorded and analysed.
Dr. Gasparrini added that while the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions have rightly been highlighted as those most at risk from the current heat wave, others should not be complacent.
“Increases in risk are also noticeable in healthy and relatively young people,” he said.
However, he added that while tips on how to deal with the heat, such as those from the likes of UKHSA, were welcome, more active projects were needed, such as improving Britain’s infrastructure to keep the public cool.
Dr. Friederike Otto, a climate science expert at Imperial College London, also predicted a spike in heat-related deaths in the coming days.
“With many poorly insulated houses and people not very used to temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius, a spike in excess mortality is unfortunately to be expected,” she said.
‘Heat is deadly, for the population and infrastructure in Britain, people die at 30 degrees Celsius. People need to know this.’
Like Dr. Gasparrini, she urged young people not to consider themselves “invincible” against life-threatening heat.
Commuters board the London Underground today during the heat wave. The temperature in the capital is expected to reach 32 degrees Celsius today
The graph shows the number of daily deaths between June and August 2022 (red line), the five-year average of daily deaths (blue line) and heat wave periods (red bars).
“Being out in the sun, forgetting to hydrate and living in polluted cities can cause heat stroke and other serious health problems for everyone.”
Dr. Otto urged the British not only to look after themselves, but also to keep an eye on vulnerable friends, family and neighbours.
“If high temperatures are predicted, people should follow heat advice from governments and local authorities, make sure they drink enough water and stay in cooler areas with shade or cool buildings, especially during the hottest part of the day,” she said .
She also warned that Britain is not doing enough to prepare for extreme heat, preparations that could reduce excess deaths.
“Our cities and homes are not built to handle extreme heat,” she said.
“But it’s no secret what needs to be done and redesigning our cities to better withstand extreme weather events also reduces emissions and benefits health and biodiversity.
“It should be an absolute no-brainer to do this.”
One of the main concerns is that many Britons could suffer from heat exhaustion.
This condition, which is caused by the body’s inability to cool itself, can cause dizziness and excessive sweating and lead to potentially fatal heat stroke.
People with circulatory or respiratory problems, which limit their ability to cool down, are particularly at risk.
Britons with dementia are also at high risk, as they may forget to drink enough fluids during periods of high heat.
The experts’ grim forecasts stem from fears that heatwave-related injuries and illnesses will strain the already overstretched NHS.
Health experts fear that large parts of the population, especially the elderly and people with dementia, will be affected by heat-related illnesses, increasing demand for NHS services.
So is the NHS itself ill-equipped to cope with the mercury rising to these levels, while older buildings are not designed to handle the heat, leading some hospitals to close wards or cancel operations.
The current heat wave has given Britain an unusually warm start to autumn after a disappointing summer that saw Britain experience its sixth wettest July on record.