A study has found that heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, with southern European countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain seeing disproportionate increases.
Cold kills more people than heat in Europe, and some have argued that climate change will benefit society by reducing deaths. But the studypublished in the journal Lancet Public Health, concluded that the death toll is responding slowly to warmer weather and may even rise as people get older and more vulnerable to dangerous temperatures.
If global warming reaches a catastrophic 3 or 4 degrees Celsius, the increase in heat-related deaths will far outweigh the decrease in cold-related deaths, the researchers concluded.
The researchers said the findings suggest that climate change could pose “unprecedented challenges” to public health care, particularly during heat waves.
“Heat-related deaths are expected to increase significantly as the climate warms and populations age, while cold-related deaths are expected to decline only slightly,” said David García-León of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, one of the study’s co-authors.
Hot weather deaths could kill 129,000 people a year if temperatures rise by 3C above pre-industrial levels. Heat-related deaths in Europe currently stand at 44,000. But the annual death toll from cold and heat in Europe could rise from 407,000 people today to 450,000 by 2100, even if world leaders meet their 1.5C global warming target, the study found.
The research follows a series of scorching heatwaves that have ravaged the continent, and its findings refute arguments by climate deniers that global warming is good for society because fewer people will die from the cold.
Even in Europe, the coolest inhabited continent, the lives lost by more intense heat will outweigh those saved by milder cold, the study found. Countries in Asia, Africa, Oceania and the Americas are baking in even deadlier temperatures.
“This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives we are putting at risk if we don’t act quickly enough on climate change,” said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impact and adaptation at the health research charity Wellcome, who was not involved in the research.
The predicted tripling of direct heat-related deaths in Europe was “not even the full picture”, she added, pointing to research linking extreme heat to miscarriages and poorer mental health. “And then there are the indirect consequences. We have already seen how extreme heat can lead to crop failures, devastation from wildfires, damage to critical infrastructure and a hit to the economy – all of which will have a knock-on effect on our lives.”
The researchers modelled data from 854 cities to estimate deaths from hot and cold temperatures across the continent. They found that heat would kill more people in all parts of Europe, but that the heaviest burden would fall on southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, as well as parts of France.
They predicted that the death toll from uncomfortable temperatures would rise by 13.5% if the planet warms by 3C – a level of climate disruption slightly higher than policies are expected to cause – leading to an additional 55,000 deaths. Most of those who die will be over 85.
Gary Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist at the MRC Centre for Environment and Health, who was not involved in the research, said the study was of high quality and provided valuable insights. However, he cautioned that predicting temperature-related deaths is complex and always involves uncertainty.
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The analysis was based on an earlier study that assumed the effect of temperature on mortality rates was constant between 2000 and 2019, he said, but other studies have reported a decline due to factors such as improved health care and changes in infrastructure. “If we do not take these into account, the future impact of heat on mortality is likely to be overestimated,” he said.
The study also extrapolated heat-related mortality data from cities to rural areas, where heat stress is less prevalent.
Elisa Gallo, an environmental epidemiologist at ISGlobal who has researched heat-related deaths in Europe and who was not involved in the study, said it is “increasingly important” to adapt to rising heat.
The researchers encouraged governments to consider policies to reduce the death toll, such as investing in hospitals, creating action plans and insulating buildings. They stressed that the predicted increase in deaths was caused by changes in Europe’s population structure and climate.
“If we want to prevent the worst scenario from happening, it is fundamental to tackle the root of the problem by tackling greenhouse gas emissions,” Gallo said.
The researchers concluded that adaptation efforts should focus on regions with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic change, emigration and ageing populations. They said such areas were less able to adapt to climate damage and were also hit harder by the increase in heat-related deaths.