Health chiefs are tracking bird flu outbreak ‘very carefully’ after two workers test positive

Britain is on red for bird flu after two poultry workers tested positive for the deadly virus.

Health chiefs revealed today that they are monitoring the threat “very carefully” amid mounting fears that another human pandemic is looming.

No signs of human-to-human transmission have yet been observed in the UK.

Officials have already traced the close contacts of the two infected workers in an effort to contain a possible outbreak.

Neither of the two – who worked on the same farm in an undisclosed location – showed any symptoms of the disease. Both have since tested negative after being diagnosed earlier this month.

The new cases come after Alan Gosling (pictured), a retired engineer in Devon, contracted the virus after his ducks, some of which lived in his home, became infected in 2022.

British scientists tasked with developing 'early human transmission scenarios' of avian flu have warned that five per cent of people infected could die if the virus takes off in humans (shown in scenario three).  In another scenario, the scientists assumed that 1 percent of those infected would be hospitalized and 0.25 percent would die — similar to how deadly Covid was in the fall of 2021 (scenario one).  The other saw a 2.5 percent mortality rate (scenario two)

British scientists tasked with developing ‘early human transmission scenarios’ of avian flu have warned that five per cent of people infected could die if the virus takes off in humans (shown in scenario three). In another scenario, the scientists assumed that 1 percent of those infected would be hospitalized and 0.25 percent would die — similar to how deadly Covid was in the fall of 2021 (scenario one). The other saw a 2.5 percent mortality rate (scenario two)

Professor Susan Hopkins, Chief Medical Adviser at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), told BBC Radio 4’s Today program earlier this morning: ‘This is clearly an ongoing risk that we need to monitor very carefully and look at and understand how transmission can occur. .’

Both workers have since “turned negative on PCR smears,” and it remains “uncertain whether they were a true infection,” she confirmed.

There is a real infection if ‘the virus multiplied in their nose and was therefore a danger to others’.

Otherwise, the virus “could have been in the back of the nose due to contamination,” she said.

She told the Today programme: ‘These are people who work in very close contact and proximity with infected birds on infected farms.

“So there’s going to be a lot of dust and a lot of potential virus fragments in the air, but also on the ground, on their clothes when they’re working in this environment.”

“They wear a lot of PPE to avoid getting infected.

“But there is always a risk that this virus and the contaminants from the environment can get under the nose, and that’s why we can detect bird flu if we make swabs from that.”

She added: “We test individuals’ contacts, we provide testing at least to individuals’ contacts.

“We will continue to do that as part of our oversight.”

H5N1 – the avian flu strain behind the current outbreak sweeping the world, believed to be the largest ever – is not easily transmitted between humans.

But mutations in the virus that facilitate mammal-to-mammal transmission could change that, some experts feared.

There are fewer than 900 human cases of H5N1 worldwide, which kills nearly 50 percent of everyone it affects.

The virus is usually picked up through close contact with an infected bird, dead or alive.

Like other forms of the flu, people can become infected if the virus gets into their eyes, nose, or mouth, or is inhaled.

But with bird flu, it usually occurs in people who spend a lot of time with infected creatures, such as bird handlers.

In early 2023, a wave of bird flu cases in humans has emerged.

Earlier this year, a Cambodian man and his daughter were diagnosed with H5N1.

Their cases caused international concern, with many experts fearing the infection was evidence that the virus had mutated to better infect humans after ripping through the world’s bird population.

Further testing revealed that the H5N1 strain was not spreading rapidly among the world’s wild birds among the Cambodian family, but instead a variant known to spread locally in the Prey Veng province in which they lived.

More than 700 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among wild birds in England since September 2022, according to the UKHSA.  Pictured above, an outbreak of bird flu in February in Queens Park, Heywood, Rochdale

More than 700 confirmed cases of H5N1 have been detected among wild birds in England since September 2022, according to the UKHSA. Pictured above, an outbreak of bird flu in February in Queens Park, Heywood, Rochdale

Both British workers were spotted through routine testing of people who came into contact with infected birds, the UKHSA confirmed yesterday. Neither was mentioned.

The two individuals “were tested repeatedly over a period of time” and “were found to have avian flu in their noses,” Professor Hopkins told the Today programme.

“They didn’t show any symptoms, which is very good and they didn’t pass it on to anyone else,” she added.

“We don’t think this increases the risk to the UK population at this time.”

Since the ongoing outbreak broke out in October 2021, there has been only one case of a Briton becoming infected with H5N1.

Alan Gosling, a retired engineer in Devon, was infected with the virus in early 2022 after his ducks became infected.

He later tested negative while in quarantine for nearly three weeks.

All of Mr Gosling’s 160 ducks — including 20 that lived in his home — were culled after he tested positive.

Government adviser, Professor Ian Brown, the director of scientific services at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), also said yesterday: ‘Deep surveillance programs of staff in close contact with infected poultry are enlightening in understanding what might be happening.

“To date, from the reported detections in humans, it is clear that careful investigation and interpretation is required.

However, he added: ‘Detection by PCR alone does not necessarily prove active infection and supports that the virus is still strongly avian in its tropism, but programs such as those deployed in Britain are valuable to better understand the real risk these viruses currently pose. to human health.

“The one health join-up approach used in Britain represents best international practice for vigilance.”

The UKHSA’s current advice states that the risk to public health from the virus is very low.

People are advised not to touch or pick up any dead or visibly sick birds they find.

The health authority has currently set the threat level to level three as there is “evidence” of changes in the virus genome that could cause a “mammal infection,” it said.

Any “sustained” transmission of the pathogen from mammal to mammal would raise the threat level to four, while it would rise to five from human to human.

Data from the World Health Organization shows that there have been 873 cases of human infection with the bird flu virus H5N1 worldwide over the past two decades.

Bird flu outbreak: everything you need to know

What is it?

Bird flu is a contagious form of flu that spreads among birds.

In rare cases, it can be transmitted to humans through close contact with a dead or live infected bird.

This includes touching infected birds, their droppings or bedding. Humans can also get bird flu if they kill or prepare infected poultry to eat.

Wild birds are carriers, especially through migration.

As they clump together to reproduce, the virus quickly spreads and is then carried to other parts of the world.

New species usually appear first in Asia, from where more than 60 species of shorebirds, waders and waterfowl migrate to Alaska to mingle with migratory birds from the US. Others go west and infect European species.

Which species are currently proliferating?

H5N1 and H3N8.

So far, as of September 2021, the H5N1 virus has been detected in some 80 million birds and poultry worldwide – doubling the previous record set the year before.

Not only is the virus spreading rapidly, it is also killing at an unprecedented level, leading some experts to say it is the deadliest strain yet.

Millions of chickens and turkeys in the UK have been culled or quarantined.

But earlier this year, on March 27, the World Health Organization (WHO) also learned that a Chinese woman was the first person ever to die from the H3N8 strain.

The 56-year-old woman from southern Guangdong province was the third person known to be infected with the H3N8 subtype of avian influenza, according to WHO.

Although rare in humans, H3N8 is common in birds, but it causes little to no signs of disease.

It has also infected other mammals.

Can bird flu infect humans?

Yes, but since 2003 only 873 human cases of bird flu have been reported to the World Health Organization.

The risk to humans is estimated to be ‘low’.

But people are urged not to touch sick or dead birds because the virus is deadly, killing 56 percent of people it manages to infect.