Haunting 2023 warning of apocalyptic California fires that would destroy Los Angeles
For Los Angeles County fire expert Drew Smith, the writing was on the wall.
In October 2023, he predicted a “nightmare scenario” in which Santa Ana winds fan fast-spreading flames across parched vegetation, devouring entire communities in their wake.
Smith’s unheeded warnings came to life in spectacular fashion last week, when wildfires engulfed the city, killing at least 24 people, destroying 12,000 buildings and driving tens of thousands from their homes.
The accuracy of his predictions casts further doubt on California officials charged with protecting the city, who have been accused of failing to manage the land and not having enough crews and water on hand to put out the fires .
In 2023, Smith said his fear of such a fast-spreading wildfire “keeps me up at night.”
‘That worst-case scenario is a fire at our residents’ homes with limited options. It’s terrifying,” he told the website LAist.
He was referring to Topanga Canyon — an area where homes have been destroyed by the Palisades Fire, the largest of the blazes that have devoured an area the size of Washington, D.C., this month.
Smith, a fire behavior analyst, warned that all the elements were in place for a raging inferno.
He pointed out the dense chaparral that hadn’t burned in decades—plenty of fuel that was about to go up in smoke.
LA fire expert Drew Smith made frighteningly accurate predictions about the October 2023 fires
Smith warned of a fast-moving fire, fanned by Santa Ana winds, that would engulf homes and claim dozens of lives
A spark from a power line or a passing car would ignite some of the dry brush covering the area, he predicted.
That, he continued, would be fanned by the blustery Santa Ana winds from the east.
As the fire spread, he warned that residents could have difficulty fleeing in time through the narrow roads that wind along the canyons.
The flames would move so fast that they would move from the San Fernando Valley to the Pacific Ocean within a few hours, he warned.
At the time, he said he would “not be surprised” if dozens of residents died in a fast-moving fire.
“That’s what we’re training for,” he added.
It could be as bad as the Camp Fire of 2018, which destroyed the town of Paradise and claimed about 85 lives, or the fast-moving Woolsey Fire that same year, which traveled 17 miles from LA to Malibu in less than 24 hours, he predicted . .
“Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security because we’ve had a very passive fire season,” Smith said ominously.
“Under the right conditions, we have a high probability of a devastating fire in the Santa Monica Mountains, which has not occurred this often in 25 years.”
In the wake of this month’s disaster, Smith’s warnings from fourteen months ago seem like a terrifying prophecy.
Firefighters tackling the Palisades Fire said they couldn’t get enough water from hydrants to put out burning homes
Smith’s predictions cast doubt on whether California Governor Gavin Newsom and other officials did enough to protect L.A.
Newsom is accused of neglecting the types of land management that keep fires from starting
Entire LA neighborhoods have been reduced to smoldering ash and piles of rubble, leaving an apocalyptic hellscape in their wake.
As of Monday, more than 92,000 LA County residents were under evacuation orders — a drop of more than 150,000 — while another 89,000 were under evacuation warnings.
The Palisades Fire, where Smith made his terrifying prediction, had wiped out luxury communities, burned 23,713 acres and was 14 percent contained.
The Eaton Fire in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains east of the city burned another 14,117 acres and was 33 percent contained, Cal Fire said.
A third fire, the Hurst, covering 799 hectares, was 95 percent contained, while three other fires in the province have been fully contained in recent days.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has said the fires could be the most devastating natural disaster in US history.
It is already the most expensive wildfire in terms of insured losses.
But the scale of the tragedy — and the accuracy of Smith’s predictions — raise questions about whether Newsom and other officials were aware of the looming risks.
Firefighters tackling the Palisades Fire said the lack of water pressure in hydrants prevented them from extinguishing burning homes.
The nearby Santa Ynez Reservoir, a 300-million-gallon water source, was being renovated and sat empty as fires swept through the area.
California officials have been accused of failing to prevent wildfires with controlled burns and logging
Angry local residents on Monday sued the LA Department of Water and Power for failing to manage the water supplies needed to fight the fires, including those in the reservoir.
President-elect Donald Trump blasted Newsom and other California officials for “incompetent” efforts to handle the fires, saying they have “no idea how to put them out.”
Top Republicans in Congress are considering imposing conditions on disaster aid, accusing the state’s Democratic leadership of mismanaging water resources and forests.
Newsom, widely seen as a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, has faced criticism for his land management policies, with seasonal fires ravaging the Golden State during his time in office.
Investigations by California-based media outlets have repeatedly criticized him for failing to deliver on promises to revamp the state’s wildfire strategy when he took office in 2019.
He is accused of overestimating his performance and taking much-needed funding from the fire safety and land management sectors as flammable fuel piled up to dangerous levels.
Newsom’s office and Smith did not immediately respond to DailyMail.com’s requests for comment.