Harris and Tim Walz campaign in Arizona and try to gain ground in the Sun Belt

The rally was held in a state represented by Democrat Mark Kelly in the U.S. Senate, who passed over Harris for running mate. The former astronaut and gun control advocate was a leading candidate for running mate. He has won two tough races in politically divided Arizona.

By skipping Kelly, Harris may also have lost a chance to win over people like Gonzalo Leyva, a 49-year-old landscaper from Phoenix. Leyva plans to vote for former President Donald Trump, a Republican, but says he would have supported a Harris-Kelly ticket.

“I prefer Kelly 100 times over,” said Leyva, a lifelong Democrat who became an independent early in Trump’s term. “I don’t think he’s as extreme as the others.”

In Arizona, every vote will matter. The state is no stranger to close races, including in 2020 when President Joe Biden defeated Trump by fewer than 11,000 votes. Both parties are bracing for a similar photo finish this year.

The last few months will feel like years and it’s hard to predict whether anyone will win by a large margin, said Constantine Querard, a veteran Republican strategist in the state.

Harris acknowledged how tough the race will be as she and Walz toured a campaign office in North Phoenix on Friday afternoon and thanked volunteers who had made signs with slogans like This Mamala Votes for Kamala and Kamala and the Coach. (Walz was a high school football coach.)

It’s going to be a lot of work, Harris told volunteers about his November victory.

Democrats say they are confident Harris is in solid shape in the state, even without Kelly on the ticket. The senator is expected to remain a strong advocate for Harris and has already been mentioned for possible Cabinet posts or other prominent roles if the vice president enters the Oval Office. Kelly is expected to attend the Arizona rally.

Kelly’s non-selection hasn’t dampened Harris’ support, said Stacy Pearson, a Democratic strategist in Phoenix. She said she feels the same enthusiasm for the new ticket that has led to huge crowds greeting Harris and Walz at previous stops on their tour, including the home of another running mate, Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.

Another Democratic strategist in Arizona, DJ Quinlan, agreed. There’s a lot of enthusiasm on the ground. It’s the closest thing to what 2008 felt like to me, he said, referring to former President Barack Obama’s first race, which energized Democratic voters.

Arizona is something of a magnet for Midwesterners looking to escape the cold. So, several observers say, Walz could still do well there. Scott Snyder, who moved to Phoenix from Detroit three years ago, wasn’t as familiar with Kelly’s background or his political views, but said Harris made the right choice in Walz.

He reminds me a lot of my dad, said Snyder, an electrician. You see pictures of him out there coaching high school football. That’s something I like. You see him out there duck hunting. Same thing. That’s pretty common in Michigan, where I’m from.

Arizona was a solidly Republican state until Trump’s combative political approach became nationally known.

In 2016, Trump won Arizona, then quickly fell out with the late Republican Sen. John McCain, a political icon in the state. That led to a steady exodus of educated, moderate Republicans out of the GOP and toward Democrats in top-of-the-ticket contests.

In 2018, Democrats won an open Senate race in the state, a precursor to Kelly’s 2020 victory and Biden’s win there. In 2022, Kelly won again, and Democrats swept the top three statewide races for governor, attorney general and secretary of state, beating Republican candidates who latched on to Trump’s style and his lies about fraud, costing him the 2020 presidential election.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican strategist and former McCain aide, said the same voters who tipped the state to the Democrats in recent elections remain lukewarm toward Trump at best.

Trump is doing nothing to embrace that segment of the electorate, he said.

The campaign is already being fought on familiar ground in Arizona, the border with Mexico. Trump and his allies have criticized Biden over the flow of migrants during his term and are shifting their attacks to Harris.

“It’s very easy for us to change the subject and focus on her,” said Dave Smith, chairman of the Pima County Republican Party.

Kari Lake, who is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego for an open Senate seat in Arizona, unveiled an ad late last week slamming Gallego for supporting Biden and Harris’ “radical border agenda,” as the ad called it. It repeatedly showed clips of the vice president chuckling.

On Thursday, Lake argued to reporters that Harris is less popular in Arizona than Biden. “They like Kamala Harris even less,” Lake said. “They understand that she has done nothing on the border.

Meanwhile, Harris is targeting the state’s rapidly growing Hispanic population with her own ad, highlighting how Harris, the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica, rose to the highest echelons of American politics.

Harris’ background and relative youth have helped Arizona and other Sun Belt states return to the presidential race, after the battle was previously limited to the three states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are considered “blue wall” states.

While Arizona has a robust younger population, it is also known for its large number of retirement communities. Pearson argued that Biden’s age, 81, put him at a disadvantage in the state.

Fellow retirees were the first to say this is not OK, Pearson said of Biden’s age. I’m so much more optimistic with Harris and Walz at the top of the ticket.