Hamas will launch a brutal guerrilla war campaign against the IDF, a senior Israeli official has warned – as the terror group is said to have lost half its troops.
The heavy losses suffered by the terror group have left it too weak to fight sustained battles against the far superior Israeli forces, reducing its ability to mount a conventional defense of its coastal stronghold.
But Hamas is strongly entrenched among civilians in Rafah and is expected to remain locked in bitter fighting before turning to insurgency once conventional forces fall – a sign of the group’s ability to quickly develop its resistance .
Speaking from Israel’s intelligence headquarters in Herzliya, the senior official told MailOnline that it was their duty to dismantle Hamas brigades “despite enormous international pressure” to stop the attack. “We assume there are many hostages in Rafah,” they said.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being pressured to agree to a ceasefire deal with Hamas that will result in the release of the 124 hostages.
But yesterday Hamas rejected the US-backed proposal, saying it would only accept a deal that would see the IDF withdraw from Gaza and let the group keep its weapons.
The senior official said Israel has no interest in occupying Gaza after the Rafah operation, but warned of a grueling operation to tackle guerrillas who refuse to surrender – suggesting the conflict could continue to drag on.
Israeli soldiers during operations in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas
Palestinians stand on a road as black smoke and flames rise over a building following the Israeli attacks in Deir al-Balah, Gaza on June 6
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chairs a cabinet meeting at the Bible Lands Museum in Jerusalem on June 5
Explaining what is required, the official said: “They will be raids that will be mainly commando raids, special forces operations.
“Our operating model will continue in a surgical style of operation, similar to the counter-terrorism operation in Judea and Samaria.
“We don’t want to manage the lives of people in Gaza. But in terms of security, we will certainly continue to be active in Gaza 24 hours a day, 24 hours a day, around the clock with activities there, but the operational vision or concept will be more than raids, not occupied.”
Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, resulting in the expulsion of many Israeli families.
However, Hamas eventually took over after winning the 2007 elections, sending a large number of rockets from the enclave into Israel with the aim of killing civilians.
The IDF has been involved in previous operations in the Palestinian territories, including Operation Defensive Shield in the West Bank in 2002.
“As you recall, in March 2002, with Operation Defensive Shield, it took us a year and a half to continue to dismantle all guerrilla activity,” the source said.
“No less is needed in Gaza because it is a bigger army, created and supported by Iran.”
Israel’s 2002 West Bank operation was launched two days after Palestinian terrorists killed 30 civilians in a suicide bombing at a hotel in Netanyahu as families celebrated Passover.
The source said he could not go into operational details about the specific problems Gaza is currently facing.
“It’s very complicated,” he said. “Ultimately, Israel is an independent state and we will have to dismantle the military power of Hamas so that they cannot commit another October 7.”
Protesters holding banners, including one of hostage Noa Argamani (centre), take part in a ‘United we Bring Them Home’ march in central London
Hostage Oz Daniel’s mother (centre) is part of a protest campaign to return Israeli hostages in central London
US President Joe Biden claimed last week that Hamas now no longer has the capabilities to carry out another October 7-style attack on Israel as he pushed for a ceasefire.
But the official said that while 4,000 terrorists may not be able to cross the border and slaughter 1,200, “even if four more infiltrated Be’eri again, it would be unacceptable.” He said: ‘Hamas cannot use its military power again, otherwise the war will not end.’
U.S. and Israeli officials quoted by Reuters estimate that Hamas has wiped out about half of its troops since Israel launched its offensive on Gaza.
According to three senior U.S. officials familiar with battlefield developments, Hamas has been reduced to 9,000 to 12,000 fighters — down from U.S. estimates of 20,000 to 25,000 before the conflict. Israel says it has lost nearly 300 troops in the Gaza campaign.
Hamas does not disclose fatalities among its fighters and some officials have described Israeli figures on the number of Hamas fighters killed as exaggerated.
Crucially, between 7,000 and 8,000 fighters are still entrenched in Rafah, where the Israeli army is currently concentrating its efforts, making the southern city Hamas’s last major bastion of resistance.
But despite the group’s weakened state, it still retains control over large parts of Gaza and its leadership remains largely unscathed.
Hamas’s 500-kilometer network of tunnels under Gaza, which stretches across the Palestinian territory like an underground city, has been crucial in its defense.
Although some of these tunnels have been targeted with explosives by the IDF – and even flooded with seawater – the ‘Gaza Metro’ is believed to still protect Hamas’s leadership, command centers and arsenal of weapons.
The tunnels will also help Hamas with its guerrilla tactics. Instead of engaging IDF soldiers in open war, they opt for ambushes and use improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to hit Israeli targets behind enemy lines.
The underground network allows Hamas to move more freely, with its fighters able to emerge unpredictably and launch attacks on the IDF.
The source also tells MailOnline that efforts to determine who will control Gaza began on October 8, when Netanyahu began thinking and planning “before we entered Gaza.”
“He wanted to see who would rule Gaza after the war,” he said.
The source claimed that even some moderate Arab countries want them to deal with Hamas behind closed doors.
But it is still not clear who will rule Gaza after the war.
An Israeli soldier stands in a tank, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, near the Israel-Gaza border in Israel
Palestinians stand on a road as black smoke rises over a building following the Israeli attacks in Deir al-Balah, Gaza on June 6
Calls for the Palestinian Authority, which governs the West Bank, to take control are not seen as an acceptable option by Israel.
The source said: “I can say in general that Israel does not see the current Palestinian Authority (PA) as someone who can take control of Gaza.”
They cited PA programs that provide financial support to families of terrorists after committing atrocities and radicalize children through school textbooks as evidence that the organization “supports terrorism” and “promotes terrorism through the education system.”
For now, the IDF’s role is to “ensure that the Gaza Strip’s southern border is secured, otherwise Hamas’s military might will take over again,” they said.