A new study shows that a standard Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper than ever, despite record price increases at the grocery store since the COVID-19 pandemic.
And without inflation, prices would be the lowest since the 1980s.
The cost of this year’s party was estimated at $58.08 for ten people, or $5.81 per person, according to a nationwide survey of food prices by the American Farm Bureau Federationa lobby group representing millions of farmers.
That’s down five percent from last year, but still up 19 percent since 2019, highlighting the grim reality of inflation over the past five years.
Adjusted for inflation, however, Thanksgiving this year will be friendlier to the American wallet than it has been for decades.
“If your dollar had the same total purchasing power in 1984 as a consumer’s, just before the start of this survey, this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF’s Thanksgiving survey, excluding the outlier of 2020.”, the authors of the AFBF survey wrote.
Of course, the purchasing power of the US dollar has fallen significantly since 1984. A dollar in 1984 is worth about $3.04 today, meaning a dollar could buy more than three times as much back then as it does today.
If you look at the short term, things look a little brighter.
Shown: The chart above shows real prices of turkey and Thanksgiving side dishes since 2005. It is not adjusted for inflation
Despite nearly 20 percent inflation of the typical Thanksgiving meal over the past five years, average household wages have risen about 25 percent over the same period, according to figures federal data.
“The average American also has to work fewer hours to buy the same meal than in previous years,” the AFBF study said. “Wages continued to grow faster after the COVID-19 pandemic, even as inflation cooled. With average wages increasing 4% from 2023 to 2024, it took us 9% less work time to pay for Thanksgiving dinner this year.”
Wage increases are not being seen equally by all workers, and costs associated with housing and child care remain under pressure in Americans.
Still, even with the declining purchasing power of the dollar, some goods in our basket are at the lowest price in the long run, even in terms of the current dollar price, the study said.
The classic Thanksgiving dinner consists of 11 items, as defined by the AFBF.
Seven of these items have dropped in price this year, including turkey, sweet potatoes, frozen peas, a vegetable casserole with carrots and celery, pumpkin pie mix, pie crusts and whole milk.
Sweet potatoes and whole milk saw the largest annual price declines, by 26 percent and 14 percent respectively.
The price of turkey, the centerpiece of every Thanksgiving, fell 6 percent, which the study described as an anomaly.
“According to the USDA Turkeys Raised report, farmers will raise 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from last year and the lowest since 1985,” the study said. ‘Normally fewer turkeys would mean a price increase, but demand for turkey fell in 2024.’
This is because major supermarkets are advertising their extra cheap Thanksgiving meals
Rolls, fresh cranberries, whipped cream and cubed filling all increased in price.
While fresh cranberry prices rose 12 percent, reversing an 18 percent decline the year before, they remain at their lowest level since 2015. Adjusted for inflation, they are about the same as in 1987, the report said .
This comes after Target released its cheapest Thanksgiving meal ever, which costs $5 per person.
The supermarket is undercutting rival Walmart, with the deal almost matching the meal offered by budget retailer Aldi.
Walmart’s deal works out to $7 per person, while Aldi says the meal marks “the return of pre-inflation prices,” allowing ten people to get a full meal for less than $47, or $4.70 each.
At $20 for four people, Target’s Thanksgiving meal is also $5 cheaper than last year.
Target’s meal includes all the traditional Thanksgiving fixings, including a turkey, russet potatoes, green beans and stuffing mix.
Aldi’s does the same, giving customers a Butterball turkey with herbs, gravy, rolls, mac & cheese and stuffing.
Aldi also offers the ingredients for cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie.