Get ready for a HOT summer: Most of the US is about to see record high temperatures
Summer is officially less than a month away — and forecasters expect large parts of the country to be hotter than average this year.
The National Weather Service has released its latest seasonal outlook, which predicts that much of the country will enjoy above-average temperatures between June and August.
The southwestern states of Arizona and New Mexico are the most likely to see temperatures above normal, with about a 69 percent chance that they will exceed averages. The East Coast will also enjoy warmer weather.
But the forecasts also show it will be wetter than usual on the east coast and around the Upland South.
The predictions come after the US experienced its third-hottest summer on record in 2022 – a year marked by extreme weather events, including several heat waves and worsening droughts in California.
The National Weather Service’s latest seasonal temperature outlook for June, July and August shows that much of the country is expected to become hotter than average in 2023
But forecasters also said large parts of the country should expect more rain than usual
Last year was the third recorded warming for the US and was marked by wildfires and a mega drought in California
A heat wave in New York in August 2022
A woman pours water on her face to cool off in a fountain in Domino Park, Brooklyn with the Manhattan skyline in the background as the sun sets during a heat wave on July 24, 2022
Much of the country, from Texas to New England, has about a 50-60 percent chance of better-than-average temperatures.
The Pacific Northwest is expected to be drier than normal and has a 33-50 percent chance of exceeding temperature averages.
The average July temperature in New York City is about 84F, but last year saw a high of 102F.
In Pheonix, Arizona, the average high is around 105F in July. Last year temperatures peaked at 111F during the month
Average highs in Albuquerque, New Mexico, in July are around 93F. Last year’s high for the month was 95F.
The forecast comes two weeks after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is about a 90 percent chance of an El Niño weather event this summer.
El Niño is a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Forecasters in the UK predicted in December that 2023 was likely to be even warmer than last year.
But new records could be set in 2024 if El Niño forms, as this is likely to push average temperatures further up.
A runner runs up the stairs at Buffalo Bayou Park during a heat wave in Houston, Texas, U.S., on Monday, July 11, 2022. Texas residents and businesses were asked to conserve electricity during the heat wave
People cool off along the ocean on Santa Monica beach amid an intense heat wave in Southern California on September 4, 2022
An aerial view of cattle grazing amid a drought on June 21, 2022 near Ojai, California
In an aerial photo, boats are docked in the Feather River branch of drought-stricken Lake Oroville on July 6, 2022 near Oroville, California. Scientists called the mega-drought the driest 22-year period in more than 1,200 years
The United Nations warned last week that 2023-2027 is almost certain to be the warmest five-year period on record. It said greenhouse gases combined with El Niño would raise temperatures.
Global temperatures will soon surpass the more ambitious goal of the Paris climate accords, with a two-thirds chance of doing so any of the next five years, according to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization.
The warmest eight years on record were all between 2015 and 2022 – but temperatures are expected to rise further as climate change accelerates.
“There is a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record,” the WMO said.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to limit global warming to “well below” two degrees Celsius above the average level measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5°C if possible.
The global average temperature in 2022 was 1.15C above the average of 1850-1900.
The WMO said there was a 66 percent chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027, with a range of 1.1°C C to 1.8 °C for each of those five years. .