Forecaster who’s predicted every presidential winner correctly for 40 YEARS reveals who he thinks will win 2024 election

A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that “a lot would have to go wrong” if Joe Biden were to lose – in November – to Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system he calls “13 keys” and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

He says the technique allows him to “predict the outcome of the popular vote based solely on historical factors and not on polls, tactics or campaign events.”

Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and in several swing states, Lichtman believes it is still to the president’s advantage to remain in office while two of his thirteen keys – lack of a serious primary challenge and established position – already favor Biden.

“That’s two keys from the top,” he said. ‘That means six more keys need to be dropped to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and in several swing states, Lichtman believes it is still in the president’s favor to remain in office, with two of his thirteen keys – lack of a serious primary challenge and established position – already favor Biden.

Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win in 2016 and Biden in 2020

Lichtman is unimpressed by polls showing Trump competing with or beating Biden both nationally and in key swing states.

“They’re fascinated by the wrong things, which is the polls,” he said. “First of all, polls six or seven months before elections have no predictive value whatsoever.”

It doesn’t mean the Biden campaign can pretend it’s certain they’ll repeat the victory.

“It is always possible that some cataclysmic event could occur outside the scope of the keys that could affect the election, and here for the first time we have not only a former president but also a major party candidate facing a lawsuit and who knows if he gets convicted – and there’s a good chance he will – how could that mess things up.”

Lichtman claims the COVID-19 pandemic was a historical event that made him predict Biden’s 2020 victory.

“The pandemic killed him,” he said The guard.

‘He congratulated me because I predicted him, but he didn’t understand the keys. The message of the keys is that it’s not campaigning that counts, it’s governance that counts, and instead of tackling the pandemic substantively, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sunk him .’

However, there are some keys that work in Trump’s favor when examining the race.

Joe Biden is seen with Allan Lichtman, who is holding a copy of his book. Lichtman believes the signs show that 2024 is Biden’s trend

Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system he calls “13 keys” and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

One of the keys is a major third-party challenger, which could be Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be in the race.

Two of the keys concern the economy, and while the numbers are moving in Biden’s favor, he has yet to see his approval rating rise.

Social unrest is another key move against Biden as college campuses become a hotbed for anti-Israel protests, with many young people calling the president “Genocide Joe.”

Both the incumbent president’s charisma and the challenger’s charisma are also seen as keys, and while many believe both candidates are too old, age appears to be more of a factor against Biden than Trump.

It should be noted that while Lichtman was technically incorrect in 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win, although he believes this was a stolen election and said Gore won the popular vote.

However, he also gets credit for correctly delivering Trump’s victory in 2016, despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote.

He admits that no matter the outcome, no system can ever be completely foolproof.

“It’s nerve-wracking because there are a lot of people who would love to see me fail.” And if he does? ‘I am a human. It doesn’t mean my system is wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.”