So go ahead, who had Chuba Akpom as their tip for Championship top scorer and perhaps player of the season? If you said yes, you’re lying.
A search of the bookmakers reveals that the Nigerian forward was 100-1 to win the Golden Boot, but here we are, mid-March, with Akpom triumphing at home with 22 goals in 29 appearances.
That’s five above Coventry’s next best Viktor Gyokeres, averaging 105 minutes per goal and his haul coming from just 58 shots.
His goals, along with inspired management from Michael Carrick and burgeoning stars across the pitch, have brought Middlesbrough within close distance of the top two.
So if you feel like you missed the boat with Akpom at 100-1, why not clear Boro to take Sheffield United into the top two? With 30 points on the line and just four points separating them, would you really bet against an in-form Boro to make a late charge?
Middlesbrough striker Chuba Akpom has dropped deep to impact the game under Michael Carrick
Akpom played 97 per cent of PAOK’s minutes in the center forward role, but that has dropped to 48 per cent this term.
His touch map from the 3-1 win at Swansea shows that he is much more than a traditional striker.
The graph shows his expected goals (xG) of 0.57 per game, the best in the Championship
Anyway, let’s go back to Akpom. A graduate of Arsenal’s Hale End academy, the striker never lived up to his potential in north London. Through loans with Brentford, Coventry, Nottingham Forest, Hull, Brighton and Sint-Truiden in Belgium, he managed just 13 goals in 85 games.
It wasn’t until his time in Greece that the striker began to feel at home. Playing in Thessaloniki with PAOK, Akpom matured as a player, winning a Super League and Greek Cup double.
Yet even this season, Akpom was in football purgatory, tasteless under then-Boro boss Chris Wilder. Taking all of that into account, his rise in the last six months has been incredible.
Looking at his touch map from Boro’s 3-1 win at Swansea on Saturday, in which Akpom scored a penalty, it’s clear he’s much more than a traditional striker.
He dropped deep to impact the game, as he has done all season under Carrick. Cameron Archer can lead the line, with Akpom playing number 10 between Riley McGree and Aaron Ramsey.
Behind that triumvirate there is a formidable duo in the center of the field. The perennial Jonny Howson, now 34 and with nearly 700 career appearances under his belt, perfectly complements one of the division’s brightest young stars, 20-year-old Hayden Hackney.
Moving a player’s positional tasks deeper would often see their attack performance drop, but Akpom has done the opposite. Not having to lead the line has taken a load off his shoulders, allowing him to find gaps and help his teammates run past.
Last season, he played 97 per cent of PAOK’s minutes in the center forward role, but that has dropped to 48 per cent this term, with more than half of his time in the deeper position.
Using the data from Delphlyx, we can see Akpom’s stats as a comparison to the rest of the players in the division. The further up the chart, the better it is compared to other players.
In the graph below, we can see that his expected goals (xG) of 0.57 per game is by far the best in the league. As for his passing statistics and offensive duels won, he is in the top half of the Championship. Off the ball and creatively, there is work to be done.
Akpom, who has yet to receive an international call-up, faces stiff competition in Nigeria. Victor Osimhen is the top scorer in Serie A with 19 goals for Napoli, while Atalanta’s Ademola Lookman is the third-highest in Italy. In France, only two men have more goals than Reims’ Folarin Balogun in Ligue 1. Josh Maja is also fit for Bordeaux and Paul Onuachu is Belgium’s second-highest scorer this season.
It’s also worth noting that Akpom is the top scorer in England’s top four tiers as of 2023 with 10 goals, having recently become the first Middlesbrough player to score 20 or more goals in a season since Fabrizio Ravanelli in 1996-97. .
Overall, the numbers look good for Akpom. If he continues to score at his rate of 0.75 goals per game, the Nigerian would approach the 30-goal mark that he has only reached three times in the history of the Championship: Aleksandar Mitrovic (43, 2021-22), Ivan Toney ( 31, 2020 -21) and Glenn Murray (30, 2012-13).
That being said, however, there is only one number that matters. And that’s canceling out the four points needed to catch Sheffield United.
Archer came out with a red run
A bizarre moment in League Two this weekend when Bradford City goalkeeper Harry Lewis touched the ball outside his penalty area due to pre-existing markings on the rugby pitch.
A joke can be made here about the failure of the England rugby team, but let’s focus on the referee.
When the Newport players begged him to send Lewis off, it was refreshing to see some common sense in the officiating, as the honest mistake was penalized only by a yellow card.
Grayson is a hero in India
Two years have passed since Simon Grayson’s fleeting stint at Fleetwood and you would have to go even further back to his last truly successful spell in English football, when his Leeds side were promoted from League One in 2009-10.
So it’s nice to see him idolized somewhere. Grayson has led Bengaluru to the final of the Indian Super League after beating Mumbai City on Sunday.
And judging by the videos of him leading a section of ecstatic fans, it’s a match made in heaven.
Edwards shows the madness of Watford
Watford take a lot of hits for their ruthless policy when it comes to sacking managers but, at a glance through the archives, many have justified themselves.
Slaven Bilic became the 18th permanent boss to be sacked since 2012 at Vicarage Road last week after just 10 wins from 26 games. So that exit was fair.
Luton are well set for a play-off final under Rob Edwards, despite a small change
And when the Watford bosses looked at the Championship table, they might have wondered, ‘What the hell were we doing firing Rob Edwards?’
Now in Luton, Edwards’s Hatters have lost fewer games than all but division leaders Burnley and are well poised to finish in the play-offs, despite a tight budget. On Saturday they beat second-placed Sheffield United.
They make some abhorrent decisions at Watford, but sacking Edwards is surely the worst of all.