TALAHASSEE, Fla. — The Florida elections will be a test of whether the state maintains its new reputation as a Republican stronghold, or whether Democrats make any gains by capitalizing on support for abortion and marijuana ballot questions and the new energy that Vice President Kamala Harris is bringing to the table. the race brings.
Gone are the days when Florida was seen as the biggest prize among swing states. After former President Barack Obama won Florida twice, former President Donald Trump carried the state with a mustache in 2016 and then by a much larger share in 2020. In 2022, Republicans captured all five statewide seats by landslide margins.
Still, there’s a lot of buzz about constitutional amendments that could protect the right to abortion and legalize recreational marijuana, with both sides of each issue pumping millions of dollars into advertising. Democrats support the ballot measures and hope they will boost turnout, giving them at least a chance to prevent Trump’s third consecutive victory in Florida and keep U.S. Sen. Rick Scott from winning a second term.
The only statewide office on the ballot is Scott’s Senate seat. Scott is being challenged by former Democratic U.S. Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell in a race overshadowed by the presidential election and ballot questions on abortion and marijuana.
Even if Trump and Scott prevail in Florida, Democratic Party Chairman Nikki Fried said the election will be a major success if the amendments pass and the party flips enough House seats to chip away at Republicans’ supermajority.
“Look where we were in November 2022. We had the biggest loss that Florida Democrats have ever had,” Fried said. “No one expected that we would even be having this conversation today, that the polls show we are in a tight spot, that there was even a possibility that Florida would be in play. Everyone left us out.”
Yet it is an uphill climb. The amendments need support from at least 60% of voters, and enough money is being spent on them that it could create doubt among voters who normally support the issues, said Florida-based Republican political strategist Jamie Miller.
“As a general rule, amendments pass when no real efforts are made against them, and fail when real efforts are made against them,” Miller said.
Miller also believes Democrats are motivated to vote against Republicans they don’t like, rather than being inspired by their own candidates.
“I see excitement against Donald Trump and against Rick Scott, but that the size of Florida overall in the state is not enough to get you over the line,” he said.
Scott served two terms as governor, winning each with less than 50% of the vote. In 2018, he defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in a race that was decided by 0.2 percentage points. But Florida politics changed. The last time Scott voted, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state. Republicans now have a million voter advantage.
Scott, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has pumped millions of dollars of his own money into the race, as he did in his previous three elections. Vastly underspent and with little money coming in from national Democrats until the final few weeks of the race, Murcarsel-Powell struggled to gain attention.
While Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis was off the ballot, he spent time campaigning against abortion rights and marijuana amendments. DeSantis even used government agencies to fight the amendment, with the Agency for Health Care Administration setting up a website and airing TV ads with information about abortion, and the Department of Health trying to prevent television stations from airing an ad in favor of the amendment.
The abortion amendment would protect women’s rights to abortion up to the point where the fetus can survive outside the womb. Florida now bans abortion six weeks after conception, even though many women do not realize they are pregnant.
Voters overwhelmingly approved medical marijuana in 2016. This year they are being asked to legalize recreational marijuana. The marijuana industry has spent tens of millions of dollars on the campaign, while DeSantis has raised money against it and often criticized it at official events.
Very few, if any, of Florida’s 28 congressional seats are competitive, but the state will elect at least one new member to Congress. Former Senate President Mike Haridopolos is favored to replace retiring Republican Rep. Bill Posey. He is being challenged by Democrat Sandy Kennedy in a strong Republican district.
Republicans will maintain firm control of the legislature. Democrats will consider it a major victory if they flip enough seats to take away the Republican Party’s supermajorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
One of the legislative seats under heavy fire is held by Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former Florida State and NFL football star, who is being challenged by nationally known civil rights attorney Daryl Parks, the former partner of civil rights attorney Ben Crump.