Florida is issuing an advisory on Hurricane Rafael as its tracker shows the storm is “likely to cause life-threatening” conditions
The Florida Hurricane Center has forecast that Hurricane Rafael is “likely to produce life-threatening fire and current conditions” in the coming days.
Rafael, currently a Category 2 hurricane, is moving deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on a northwesterly path toward Texas.
The The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami stated that the storm “remains a strong compact hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico,” producing swells that will create dangerous surf and currents off the coast of Florida.
‘Southwest winds that fuel Hurricane Rafael are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including waters near Key West, Florida,” NHC stated.
Prediction models predict a significant shift in the Rafael’s path, reducing its chances of invading the US – but a likely path is still unclear.
The NHC shows the storm will be closest to Texas on Sunday and likely make a sharp move south and move toward Tabasco, but noted that there is “above average uncertainty in Rafael’s future track.”
But what is clear is that Rafael has lost some steam after slamming into Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, bringing torrential rains and strong winds that reached speeds of 170 km/h, disrupting the entire country’s power grid disabled.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) Miami issued a Hurricane Rafael advisory on Friday, saying the storm will produce waves that are “likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip conditions.”
‘According to the forecast, Hurricane Rafael will see some fluctuations in intensity today. A steady weakening trend is forecast by tonight, which should continue through the weekend,” the NHC said.
The unpredictable path has changed dramatically this week.
Spaghetti models – so called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – showed on Tuesday that Rafael might reach Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana on Saturday.
And on Wednesday, the NHC issued a warning for tropical storm conditions in the Florida Keys, warning locals to secure loose items outdoors due to high winds and flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists said on Thursday that the chance of the plane making landfall in the US is ‘extremely low’.
However, Friday’s forecast showed that the US will likely be spared from now on.
The models released today show one path to Florida, which has the lowest probabilities, but NHC’s update shows that Rafael is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.”
“Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor Rafael’s progress,” the agency continued.
“The swell generated by Rafael is expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.
“These swells are likely to create life-threatening surf and current conditions.”
The storm’s path was very unpredictable, but NHC believes it will move closer to Texas and then follow a sharp path south toward Mexico.
The models released today show one path to Florida, which has the lowest probabilities, but NHC’s update shows that Rafael is expected to move across the central Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.”
Rafael is the seventeenth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, but it is very rare for hurricanes to hit the US in November.
That’s because it’s the last month of the seasonand favorable conditions for tropical storm formation have diminished.
A total of 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the US since records began in 1851, with only four hitting in November.
The most recent Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in November 2022. Before that, the US had not seen a hurricane since Katie in 1985.
However, Rafael is the strongest hurricane to pass through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009.
Nine storms – including Rafael – have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly high ocean temperatures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) held a live briefing in May to discuss the preseason outlook, forecasting 25 named storms that could lead to 13 hurricanes.
And as we near the end of the season, NHC said last month that three more storms could form in the Atlantic Ocean and that Rafael would appear first.
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, “We may even see a tropical storm in December of this year. It doesn’t happen often, but very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year.’