Finland, having cleared last NATO hurdle, heads to elections

Finland, which shares a long border with Russia, is going to the polls on Sunday to elect a new government as it prepares to join NATO.

On Thursday, Turkey ratified membership of the Nordic nation – the last of the alliance’s 30 members to do so.

Will Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic Party, which launched the membership process last year, include the country of 5.5 million in the world’s largest military alliance?

And is Marin still as popular as in 2019 when she became the world’s youngest leader at age 34?

Here’s what you need to know:

How is government formed?

Thousands of candidates from 22 political parties are vying for 200 seats in Finland’s unicameral parliament, the Eduskunta.

Four groups tend to dominate the elections: the Social Democrats, the Center Party, the National Coalition Party and the Finnish Party.

Here are eight parties on the political spectrum:

• Social Democratic Party of Finland (SDP) – Marin’s centre-left party, now the largest in parliament.
• Center Party (KESK) – Finland’s fourth largest party with centrist policies.
• National Coalition Party (KOK) – The main centre-right party of the opposition group, also described as conservative-liberal.
• Finns Party (PS) – Right-wing populists push for immigration cuts.
• Left Alliance (VAS) – Leftist party that has faced division over Finland’s NATO membership.
• Green League (VIHR) – Environmentalists who prioritize well-being and equality.
• Swedish People’s Party of Finland (RKP) – Party representing the minority of Swedish speakers in Finland.
• Christian Democrats (KD) – Party that supports “Christian values”.

The latest opinion poll by Helsingin Sanomat newspaper showed that the three largest parties – the National Coalition, the Social Democrats and the Finnish Party – were neck and neck fighting.

The party that wins the most seats gets to form the next government.

To do so, it must form a coalition with other parties and secure at least 101 seats. The leader of the winning party becomes prime minister.

Is Marin still popular?

Marin’s government is a coalition consisting of her Social Democrats, the Center Party, the Green League, the Left Alliance and the Swedish People’s Party.

She faces stiff competition, especially from Petteri Orpo of the National Coalition and Riikka Purra of the Finnish Party.

During Marin’s tenure, she has become known for her straightforward politics, modern feminist ideals, and cool persona. Last year, she was heavily criticized by some members of the opposition after a video of her partying with her friends went viral on social media.

But Helsinki voter Emma Holopainen told Al Jazeera the scandal won’t hurt Marin’s chances.

“A lot of criticism of her has been about her personal life and choices and not directly about her leadership skills,” she said.

Marianna, a 27-year-old, shared a similar view.

“For the first time,” she said, “people are talking about ‘voting tactically’ for the Social Democrats, because they want Sanna Marin to remain prime minister, even though they would normally vote for another party, such as the Greens.

“The SDP is trailing the KOK by a narrow margin in the polls and would much rather see Marin continue as prime minister.”

On election day, Finns traditionally enjoy a cup of coffee and a sweet bun called “pulla” after they vote.

“Instagram also circulated a post explaining how you can tell which party someone is voting for by the pulla – cinnamon bun – they have after voting,” said Marianna.

What do the Finns think of NATO?

According to Theodora Helimäki, a PhD student studying voting at the University of Helsinki, joining NATO is something that all parties agree on.

“Historically, joining NATO prior to the Russian war in Ukraine was a divisive topic for some people in the country,” Holopainen said. “NATO is now quite popular and more people are in favor of it.”

An opinion poll by broadcaster YLE in May showed that 76 percent of Finns were in favor of joining NATO.

The Left Party, once a staunch opponent of Finland joining NATO, now supports membership as a defensive move.

According to local media, the war in Ukraine was one of the main reasons for this sharp shift among leftists.

Marianna told Al Jazeera she supports joining NATO.

“If a leftist youth were asked before February 24, 2022 whether Finland was joining NATO, the answer would have been negative,” she said, referring to the date of the full Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“We wanted to remain unattached. We didn’t want to spend our money on defense or send our men to train with the alliance.

“But there is a lot of collective historical trauma with Russia, which we inherited from our grandparents’ generation, and we have realized that there is only one option now, and that is to join NATO.”

How does voting work?

Members of Parliament are elected from 13 constituencies. The number of elected representatives of each district is proportional to the population of the district.

Voters choose candidates — ranked by popularity — from an open list, and those with the most votes in each district win seats.

“It’s like we have 13 mini-elections to determine the winners of parliament,” Helimäki said.

Finns living abroad can vote in advance and send absentee ballots by post.

According to Helimäki, pre-voting in Finland has become more popular this year. It can be done in libraries, universities and some supermarkets.

What do Finns care about?

The fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and addressing security concerns with Russia have been Marin’s biggest challenges since the start of her tenure.

This year, voters are also more concerned about how the government plans to tackle inflation and tackle climate change, Helimäki said.

According to Statistics Finland, inflation rose to 8.8 percent in February, driven by higher mortgage interest rates and more expensive heating bills.

As in the rest of Europe, the cost of living crisis is a cause for concern.

In addition, Finland’s public debt was about 144 billion euros ($157 billion) at the end of January. Debts began to mount during the pandemic and after Russia invaded Ukraine. It increased as the government borrowed more money to bolster its defense systems.

Finance Minister Annika Saarikko has warned that the next government may need to borrow further.

Opposition leader Orpo told Reuters news agency that cutting unemployment, social benefits and business subsidies could bring the economy back into balance.

But the Marin administration opposed austerity as a solution to the debt crisis, proposing instead to raise taxes and encourage economic growth.

On climate change, Purra of the Finns Party said in a recent debate that Finland’s 2035 carbon neutrality target — a target set by the Marin government and also agreed by the KOK Party — should be postponed to 2050.

“Some Finns, especially from the forestry sector, are not very happy with this statement,” said Helimäki. “Sixty percent of Finland’s forests are privately owned, so they are concerned that such messages from political parties could lead to more deforestation and environmental degradation.”

The Finns Party’s campaign also focused on anti-immigration.

Marin called the Finnish party “openly racist” and said it would not form a coalition with the populists.

“It is quite disappointing to see that immigration is still a bone of contention,” said Helsinki voter Holopainen.