Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years
WASHINGTON — With inflation largely under control, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will do something it hasn’t done in more than four years: cut its key interest rate. The move should lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses just weeks before the presidential election.
And yet, an unusual air of uncertainty hangs over this week’s meeting: It’s unclear how big the Fed’s rate cut will be. Wall Street traders and some economists see an increasing likelihood that the central bank will announce a larger-than-usual cut of a half-point. Many analysts anticipate a more typical quarter-point cut.
With inflation barely above target levels, Fed officials have shifted their focus to supporting a weakening labor market and achieving a rare “soft landing,” that would tame inflation without triggering a sharp recession. A half-point rate cut would signal that the Fed is as determined to maintain healthy economic growth as it is to overcome high inflation. This week’s move is expected to be just the first in a series of Fed rate cuts that will last through 2025.
High interest rates and increased prices for everything from groceries to gas to rent have fueled widespread public disillusionment with the economy and provided a front line of attack for former President Donald Trump’s campaign. Vice President Kamala Harris, for her part, has argued that Trump’s promise to slap tariffs on all imports would raise prices for consumers much more.
Over time, Fed rate cuts should lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, as well as business loans. Business spending could grow, and so could stock prices. Businesses and consumers could refinance into lower-interest debt.
Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear in a controversial speech last month Jackson Hole, Wyomingthat Fed officials are confident that inflation has been largely defeated, having fallen from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.5% last monthnot far above the Fed’s 2% target. Central bank officials fought back against price increases by raising their key interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023 to a two-decade high of 5.3% in an attempt to slow borrowing and spending, ultimately cooling the economy.
Wage growth has slowed since then, removing a potential source of inflationary pressure. And oil and gas prices are falling, a sign that inflation will cool further in the coming months. Consumers are also push back at high prices, forcing such companies such as Target and McDonald’s to promote offers and discounts.
But after several years of strong job growth, employers are hiring fewer people and the unemployment rate has fallen. has risen nearly a full percentage point from its half-century low in April 2023 to a still-low 4.2%. Once the unemployment rate rises this much, it usually keeps rising. But Fed officials and many economists note that the rise in unemployment largely reflects an increase in new workers looking for jobs — particularly new immigrants and recent college graduates — rather than layoffs.
Still, Powell said in Jackson Hole that “we will do everything we can to support a strong labor market,” adding that any “further weakening” of the labor market would be “undesirable.”
Some analysts have said such a sweeping statement suggests Powell would support a half-point rate cut. Other economists still think a quarter-point cut is more likely.
The question is how quickly the Fed will cut rates to a point where they no longer act as a drag on the economy — nor as an accelerator. Where that so-called “neutral” level falls is unclear, though many analysts put it at 3% to 3.5%. Economists who favor a half-point cut argue that the Fed’s key rate is much higher than it needs to be as inflation eases.
Others, however, note that the Fed typically cuts rates by a half point or more only in emergencies. The last time it made a similar cut was in March 2020, as the pandemic was shutting down the economy. With consumers still spending and the economy likely to grow at a healthy pace in the July-September quarter, more cautious Fed officials may argue there is no rush to cut.
One hopeful sign is that now that Powell and other Fed officials have signaled that rate cuts are coming, many lending rates have already fallen in anticipation. The average 30-year mortgage rate, for example, fell to 6.2% last week — the lowest level in about 18 months and down from a peak of nearly 7.8%, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. Other rates, such as the yield on the five-year Treasury note, which influences auto loan rates, also fell.