Fears, vulnerabilities, divides and dancing in Moldova
Molovata Noua, Moldova – Memories of March 1992 weigh heavily on Alexandra Besleaga.
She was 17 at the time when fighting broke out and the order was given to evacuate women and children from the Moldovan enclave of Molovata Noua.
Located on the eastern bank of the Dniester River, the village is isolated from the rest of the Moldovan-controlled territory to the west and can only be reached by ferry.
The few roads leaving the commune lead through Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway republic where conflict has raged for more than three decades and where Moscow maintains a presence of some 2,000 soldiers.
Thirty-one years ago, as the Transnistrian separatists advanced from the east, Besleaga fled by ferry with friends and relatives to the west bank of the Dniester River, where several buses were waiting.
Although she survived, not everyone was so lucky.
“While we were waiting to leave, the separatists started bombing the buses,” said Besleaga, now 48.
“People were jumping out of windows, everyone was running. I saw a man carrying my cousin. His shirt was covered in blood,” she said.
Her cousin died a few minutes later.
Today, Moldova – a former Soviet republic with a population of 2.6 million – has become an increasingly visible afterthought of Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
Ukraine and its Western allies say Russia could use Transnistria to launch new attacks on Ukraine.
Moscow is also accused of wanting to destabilize Moldova within a decade and bring it back into the Russian sphere of influence.
Observers say Russia has stepped up disinformation campaigns over the past year, sparked an energy crisis in Moldova by scaling back gas exports and fueled political unrest by funneling money to Kremlin-friendly Moldovan politicians who pay protesters to call for the removal of Moldova’s West-leaning government.
Moldovans are no stranger to geopolitical games.
At various points in its history, the country that forms modern Moldova has fallen under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Romania, and then the Soviet Union before declaring independence in 1991.
In the intervening years, Moldova has struggled to improve its economic prospects, reduce dependence on Russian energy and curb endemic corruption. Recently, the country has moved ideologically towards Europe, electing a pro-Western government in 2020 and applying for European Union membership after Russia invaded Ukraine. It has also expressed interest in joining NATO, prompting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to threaten that Moldova could be the “next Ukraine”.
The war in Ukraine has also exposed deep divisions in Moldova.
While youth are attracted to opportunities in the EU, pro-Russian sentiment continues to permeate other parts of society, especially among the older generation who remain nostalgic for the Soviet Union, and in regions such as the Gagauz Autonomous Territory which prefers Russian over Romanian as the lingua franca.
In such areas, Russian news and social media outlets provide a way for misinformation to spread, according to Watchdog MD, a local monitoring organization that documents trends since last year’s invasion of Ukraine.
“They’re always trying to weaponize stories in some way,” says Andrei Curararu, an associate researcher at Watchdog MD. “There is always a twist. They modify news stories to make them seem worse to the people of Moldova and to raise the general level of fear.”