Experts say Trump’s latest liable verdict will hurt independents, not grassroots

Donald Trump has faced what could have been a consistent week in his bid to win the presidency for a second time.

A jury found him liable for sexually assaulting and defaming E. Jean Carroll, and less than 24 hours later at his CNN town hall, he doubled down by calling her a “crazy nut” and dismissing her rape allegations as “handkerchiefs” .

He has now been charged with 34 felonies and defended his comments made in the infamous Access Hollywood tape.

Many lawmakers and commentators celebrated a death sentence for his campaign. He then stoked the fire even further by calling Kaitlan Collins a “nasty woman” during their primetime showdown on Wednesday night, seen by more than three million Americans.

The reality, however, is very different for some experts and strategists. Some say his behavior should disqualify him from being the 2024 Republican nominee, but others believe that what doesn’t kill the president makes him stronger.

And his dominance in recent polls and staunch support among his base show it.

He also called the moderate Kaitlin Collins a “nasty person” during the town hall

He has a commanding lead over would-be rival Ron DeSantis, some American voters rate him more favorably than President Joe Biden (according to a poll last week), and he continues to gain support from Republicans.

So, will the events unfolding this week change the minds of the supporters Trump needs most?

“It will certainly turn more independent voters away from Trump and should give his GOP challengers a chance to go after Trump as a risky candidate,” GOP strategist Doug Heye told DailyMail.com.

“But whether they seize that opportunity remains to be seen.”

“At this point, the American people already have a very good idea of ​​Donald Trump’s character, and the Carroll verdict is unlikely to change the minds of many voters,” said Christina Wolbrecht, a professor of political science at the University of Washington. Notre Dame who studies politics and gender told DailyMail.com.

On Capitol Hill, insiders thought Ron DeSantis would have Trump, the backing of the establishment. But insiders say DeSantis is aloof and doesn’t take the time to forge the connections he might need later — and early supporters, especially in Florida, have overwhelmingly broken for Trump.

Senator Steve Daines, R-Mont., Senate campaign chairman and a supporter of the former president, shrugged at the latest liable verdict.

“It appears that President Trump’s legal team will appeal this decision,” he told reporters this week.

“Look, I respect our juries, our system of government. But at the same time, that was something that was a civil matter. It’s not a felony or anything,” Representative Buddy Carter, a staunch Trump ally, told DailyMail.com.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Republican who was on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6 to support Trump but denies entering the Capitol grounds, neither condemned nor supported the president.

In an interview with DailyMail.com, he emphasized the difference between guilty and liable, but left out his own thoughts.

“I don’t tolerate people talking to people in a bad way, ask someone in my office. That’s not something I focus on. I’ll give you the absolute truth: Former President Trump and President Biden are going to do what they’re going to do and neither of them is going to call me to ask my opinion.”

GOP Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, predicted that the case could actually help Trump — as did the Manhattan district attorney who indicted him.

“I haven’t seen any polling data, but it seems to me that when people come after him, whether it’s the Manhattan DA or in other cases, that actually — it’s interesting, it seems to actually increase his popularity and his numbers,” he told DailyMail.com.

Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican and member of the Senate leadership, said he didn’t think Trump was a winnable candidate regardless of this week’s verdict.

“The fact is, I don’t think he can win the presidency, regardless of how you feel about him as an individual.”

Senator Todd Young, R-Ind., told CNN he was particularly concerned about Trump’s comments at town hall, in which he refused to say whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is a war criminal.

“President Trump’s judgment on this matter is wrong,” Young said.

Jean Carroll leaves federal court on May 9, 2023 in New York

A civil jury found on Tuesday, May 9, 2023 that former President Donald Trump sexually assaulted the writer in the 1990s

“Of course” it worries him, Young said. “That’s why I don’t intend to support him.”

Asked why he won’t support Trump, he said, “Where do I start?”

Senator Kevin Cramer, RN.D., told reporters, “Of course I’d prefer a president not held accountable for battery use. It’s not a disqualification, but certainly not a tick in the plus column.’

But experts agree that Trump needs to win over independent-minded suburban women if he wants to win. Such behavior may not harm his standing with the women who already love him, but it certainly won’t win over new female voters.

“Trump was having trouble winning over women in 2020, especially suburban women. Women who are already Trump supporters may view a verdict as illegitimate, but they are not the people Trump needs to win over,” said law professor and conservative writer William Jacobson.

“Being held civilly liable for sexual assault could only hurt Trump’s chances with much-needed independent women in the general election, which would also play a role in the primaries, as eligibility is an issue.”