Expected rise in deaths in Britain due to snow and ice weather warnings

Public health bosses in Britain expect a rise in cold weather-related deaths amid severe weather warnings for snow and ice over the next five days.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an amber alert for social care in England, saying vulnerable people are at risk as the country braces for heavy snow and ice this weekend.

Met Office yellow warnings will be in force for five days, starting with snow and ice warnings stretching from the Shetland Islands to Derby and Nottingham, including North Wales and Northern Ireland.

These will be replaced on Saturday by a general warning for heavy snow in England, Wales and southern parts of Scotland, which will remain in force until Monday morning.

Forecasters say around 5cm of snow is expected in the Midlands, Wales and northern England, with as much as 20-30cm on high ground in Wales and the Pennines.

An increase in deaths, especially among people aged 65 and over or with health problems, was likely, the UKHSA said.

Some people will struggle to keep indoor temperatures at the recommended 18 degrees Celsius, leading to an increased risk for vulnerable people.

Charities said some elderly people who did not receive winter fuel allowance from the government would struggle. Age UK chief executive Caroline Abrahams said the charity had already been contacted with “concerns about what to do when this moment came”. She said: “We are urging older people to do everything they can to keep warm, even if that means spending more on their heating than they think they can afford.”

The Met Office has also warned there is a small chance of power cuts, stranded vehicles, canceled train and air travel, and some rural communities being cut off due to treacherous roads.

The icy forecast comes amid flooding that has left homes damaged and cars trapped in rapidly rising waters.

A major incident was declared in Greater Manchester on New Year’s Day as hundreds of people were evacuated, including from a hotel housing asylum seekers and a block of flats in Stockport where residents were trapped. Major railway lines were also flooded and the banks of a canal in Cheshire collapsed due to a rise in flood waters.

A total of 12 flood warnings remained in force across England on Thursday morning, with flooding expected, mainly in West and North Yorkshire. A further 53 flood warnings, where flooding is possible, extended from the Tyne and Wear coast to Seaford, on the East Sussex coast and from Shropshire in the west to the Suffolk coast.

A flood warning in Ness side, near Inverness, Scotland, also remained in force after several days of heavy rain and wind led to the cancellation of Hogmanay events including the Edinburgh street party.

For those wanting to travel despite the wintry weather, the Met Office and National Rail have issued reminders to plan ahead. Difficult driving conditions should be expected, especially in areas under a yellow weather warning. It is advisable to allow extra time as delays, diversions or inconvenient conditions for road users may occur.

Public transport passengers are advised to check schedules and services before traveling in case of delays or cancellations.

National Rail said the bad weather would impact trains running across Britain, with Northern, TransPennine Express, Transport for Wales and ScotRail services all affected.

Two new flood warnings were issued just before 6am on Thursday, with water levels peaking for the Lower River Wharfe system in Yorkshire and the Lower River Ure waterway in North Yorkshire. Both the river systems and surrounding tributaries were at risk of flooding.

Areas most at risk within the Lower River Ure system include low lying land such as farmland and roads in the areas around Masham, Boroughbridge, Aldborough and Bishop Monkton. For Lower River Wharfe, areas at risk of flooding extend from Otley to upstream Ulleskelf, including Tadcaster.

No further significant rainfall is expected in the area on Thursday and water levels are expected to start to fall over the coming hours. People are advised to avoid using low lying footpaths or bridges near watercourses, and not attempt to walk, drive or cycle through flood water.

Greater Manchester Police said the major incident was declared when mountain rescue teams were deployed to assist Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service in dealing with damaged property and stranded vehicles. The force said the affected areas still under surveillance are Didsbury, Stockport, Trafford and Wigan.

In Bristol, the severe weather emergency protocol has been activated by the city council and homeless charity St Mungo’s, running until January 8. There will be more outreach services and more accommodation available, with the aim of ensuring no one has to sleep on the streets during such extreme weather conditions.

Marco Petagna, a senior meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “Most roads will be treated; on untreated roads there is a chance that ice is still a problem. I think we will see more snow and ice warnings on Friday.”