Ukraine’s development of a newly modified cruise missile that could strike targets hundreds of miles across the Russian border has sparked fears that Vladimir Putin could resort to the nuclear option if he becomes “desperate.”
Dr. Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society think tank, said that while the nuclear threat is unlikely, it remains on the table as the Kremlin chief feels backed into a corner amid attacks on Russian cities.
“It is unlikely that Russia would attack Ukraine or NATO allies with nuclear weapons simply in response to the use of Neptune missiles. If that were to happen, it would mean a response from the West that would certainly hasten the demise of the Putin regime.
That said, if Putin felt his grip on power was fading, he might try something desperate. At that point, one would hope that saner forces within the Russian hierarchy would intervene to relieve him of his command,” he said.
Meanwhile, former US defense attache in Moscow and retired US Army Brigadier General Kevin Ryan said Washington was alarmed by Ukraine’s new strike capability.
The US government is concerned that successful attacks by Ukraine on Russia could give Putin justification to expand his war to the West or even use nuclear weapons.
“Using the Neptune in attacks on Russian infrastructure will escalate the war and force Putin and his military leadership to also escalate their attacks on Ukrainian cities.”
It comes after Ukraine destroyed an advanced Russian air defense system in the occupied Crimean peninsula last month, scoring a direct hit on the S-400 ‘Triumf’ and blasting it into the air in an impressive strike.
Putin’s state media and war bloggers opposed the attack, labeling it as the result of a British-supplied Storm Shadow missile and threatening retaliation against the West for its support of Kiev.
But it was later revealed that the weapon behind the S-400’s destruction was not a British projectile, but instead a modified version of a Neptune cruise missile – the kind that last year sank the Moskva, the pride of the Russian Black Naval fleet.
Ukraine detonated a modified subsonic Neptune missile in Crimea last month, destroying Russian air defense missiles in a massive explosion that also killed Russian troops
Kiev’s Luch Design Bureau has adapted its highly capable ‘Neptune’ anti-ship cruise missiles – the kind that last year sank the Moskva, pride of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet – to fire at land targets
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting on the implementation of the Murmansk LNG project in Sochi, Russia, September 4, 2023
By converting the Neptune anti-ship missile so that it can be fired at land targets from land-based positions, Ukrainian engineers have given Zelensky’s army the ability to strike deep into Russian territory – something they have shown they can already do with drones can do – with devastating consequences.
Senior Research Leader in Defense and Security at RAND Europe Bryden Spurling told MailOnline that the newly modified missile could allow Ukraine to destroy targets more than 200 miles inside Russian territory with near pinpoint accuracy.
‘The earlier anti-ship version sank the Russian cruiser Moskva, so it is a precision weapon with a large warhead. The proposed range for this new land attack version appears to be somewhere between 270 and 300 kilometers – and could potentially grow to as much as 350 kilometers according to some sources,” Spurling said.
He added that the modified Neptune missiles open a new capability for the Ukrainian armed forces, whose access to Western weapons systems such as Storm Shadow missiles depends on them being used exclusively to defend Ukrainian territory – and not to to strike the border.
“The modification to the Neptune system will allow Ukraine to supplement the Western missiles it has received with a long-range precision missile that it can produce domestically,” Spurling said.
“It’s another source of supply that Ukraine can tap into without the conditions that come with a lot of Western equipment.
“It gives Ukraine an additional tool in the toolbox to attack high-value Russian targets, such as air bases, headquarters, logistics hubs, naval facilities and key military capabilities.”
Spurling said it is unlikely that Kiev would launch a direct attack on a densely populated area with these missiles, but pointed out that Ukrainian drones have already struck government offices in Moscow’s business district.
“This version of the Neptune could hit targets in Russian cities… Ukraine has already shown that it can and will attack Russian territory directly, usually with drones. The only difference here is that this missile has a heavier warhead than many of the drones Ukraine has used against Russian territory to date.
“Despite Russia’s rhetoric, they do not want to risk an escalation that could further draw NATO and the West into this conflict.
“But it is possible that if Ukraine were to use (a Neptune missile) to destroy a particularly valuable or sensitive target, Russia might feel the need to escalate.”
Retired US Army Colonel Gian Gentile added that the extent of damage that Ukraine’s Neptune missiles could cause would be impossible for the Kremlin to hide, and therefore could undermine Putin’s story about the progress of the war undermine.
“Attacking targets inside Russia with these Ukrainian R-360 missiles brings the war to the attention of the Russian people, especially the Russians living in Moscow. At a strategic level, then, their impact is more psychological, in the sense that it shatters the myths about the war put forward by Russian state media in a way that no other form of information campaign by the Ukrainians can.
“At the operational level, these Ukrainian R-360 missiles could certainly have a military impact as they could hit Russian airfields, ammunition depots and other maintenance facilities in Russia,” he concluded.
A Neptune anti-ship missile is depicted
One of Neptune’s anti-ship missiles sank the Moskva flagship of Vladimir Putin’s Black Sea Fleet last year.
The addition of these modified Neptune missiles to the Ukrainian arsenal may not prove to be a pivotal moment in the war.
But the increased threat could certainly help strengthen the efforts of Ukrainian ground forces to break through entrenched Russian defense lines in the Donbas and the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia.
Mendoza said: “A measure like this will not in itself be a turning point in the war. That will only happen if the Ukrainians can break through the Russian front line, or if events conspire to remove Putin and his party from the Kremlin.
“However, attacking Russian forces at long range will improve Ukrainian military performance and could contribute to weakening Russian defenses and morale, which in itself could contribute to a military breakthrough on the front line.
“These modified missiles can easily be intercepted by the Kremlin because they do not travel at the speed of sound. Putin will therefore have little concern about an attack (on Russian cities). But he will be concerned about his strategic bases in Crimea.”
RUSI colleague Samuel Cranny-Evans added that while the Neptune missiles may not be as capable as Storm Shadow’s, they can still cause significant damage and increase Ukraine’s attack capabilities.
“It is unclear whether (the modified Neptune missiles) can fly a variable cruise profile, which missiles like Storm Shadow do to evade air defenses and detection.
“If they don’t, Russian air defenses can shoot them down, provided they get enough warning.
“That said, combining missile types is also an effective way to counter air defenses. So it would be difficult to launch Storm Shadow, Neptune and drones to arrive at the target at the same time.”
Only time will tell whether the newly modified Neptune missiles prove to be an effective weapon in helping the Ukrainian armed forces drive the Russian occupiers from their territory.
But Ukrainian defense officials said on Monday that troops had regained more territory on the eastern front and were advancing south in their counter-offensive against Russian forces, while President Volodymyr Zelensky visited two frontline areas.
Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Kiev’s forces were beginning to seize more territory around the eastern city of Bakhmut, having taken back about 30 miles of land there since they began their counter-offensive in early June, Maliar wrote on messaging app Telegram.
Meanwhile, videos posted on the Ukrainian presidential website on Monday showed Zelenskiy visiting troops in the eastern region of Donetsk, where Bakhmut is located, and in the Zaporizhia region, where Kiev’s forces are trying to advance south towards the Sea of Azov.
Kiev has recaptured a number of villages and settlements during its three-month offensive, but its soldiers are hampered by vast Russian minefields and trenches.
Maliar said last week that Ukrainian troops have broken through the first Russian defense line and that the Ukrainian army now expects to advance more quickly.
But Moscow has continued to carry out airstrikes on Ukrainian targets, including port infrastructure, and has reported drone strikes on Russian territory.