EXCLUSIVE: Clinton strategist James Carville calls poll showing Biden losing in swing states a ‘tipping point’ – as Democrats say the president is ‘in trouble’ and there is ‘work to be done’ in the 12 months to to the elections
Democrats are warning the White House to pay more attention to a new poll showing Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in five critical swing states. Democratic strategist James Carville called it a “tipping point” in the 2024 election.
“The poll is not surprising at all,” Carville told DailyMail.com, noting that while Biden’s numbers have been low for some time, the New York Times/Siena College poll has become “kind of a tipping point” for Democrats .
But, he argued, more data is needed for Democrats to determine their next steps. He said the poll question he’d like to see is “simply, ‘I wouldn’t consider voting for Biden, and alternatively, I wouldn’t consider voting for Trump.’ .”‘
The poll of The New York Times and Siena College which shows that the president is behind Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden leads only in Wisconsin, by 2 percentage points. Biden won all six states in the 2020 election.
The numbers, released this weekend, resulted in a chorus of Democrats warning there was “work to be done,” using words like “problems” and “concerns” to describe Biden’s chances for a second term, with less then one before the elections. 2024 elections.
‘We have work to do. We are not yet where we want to be in a year’s time. It’s not really surprising,” Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told DailyMail.com. “We all want to be in a better place, but we don’t worry about it.”
Biden’s defenders, meanwhile, point out that the election is a year away and that Trump, who was in court in New York on Monday, faces a plethora of legal challenges in the coming months.
James Carville said a new poll showing Biden behind Trump is ‘not surprising’ but is becoming a ‘tipping point’ in the 2024 election
But Biden’s approval rating is at the lowest point of any president seeking a second term since Jimmy Carter, polls show. On Sunday, one year after Election Day, Biden’s approval rating in Gallup was 37 percent.
His numbers started at a healthy 57 percent when he was inaugurated in January 2021. But it began to fall after the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan and was exacerbated by voters’ concerns about the economy and rising inflation. Biden has also been hurt by a series of verbal blunders and physical stumbles, and he faces growing concerns about his age: At 80, he is the oldest US president ever elected.
Furthermore, a poll earlier this year found that only 37 percent of Democrats wanted Biden to seek a second term, while many were looking for an alternative candidate.
Carville, who has been raising the alarm about Biden’s numbers for months, noted that he’s been called “bed-wetter, a loser” — you know, every name they can think of and now of course every chin scratcher and pontificate goes. this is serious.” Where have you been the last five months?”
Now other strategists are sounding similar alarm bells, raising concerns that Trump — who has a double-digit lead among Republican primary candidates — could win a second term of his own, throwing Biden out of the Oval Office.
Former Obama adviser Dan Pfeiffer advised Democrats to take the results “very, very seriously” as the poll shows Trump is now the “slight favorite” to win.
‘I am still processing this survey and will have more to say in the coming days. But I don’t want to sugar coat it. While some of Trump’s gains among black, Hispanic and young voters may be hard to believe, these types of numbers are broadly consistent with trend lines in recent polls. This poll shows that not only can Trump win, but he may now be a slight favorite to do so. Even if we don’t take the results literally, we should take them very, very seriously,” Pfieffer further wrote The message box.
“Instead of scrolling and tweeting through our panic, we should view this poll as a roadmap for rebuilding the anti-MAGA majority. We need to convince the voters we have lost since 2020,” he added.
The New York Times and Siena College showing Joe Biden (above) trailing Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania
Biden allies argue that it is too early in the election cycle to take the poll seriously and point to Donald Trump’s (above) legal troubles, where the former president was in the New York State Supreme Court on Monday.
The poll showed that Trump not only had the lead in key swing states, but had also eaten into Biden’s lead among younger, black and Hispanic voters — all key voting blocs for Democrats.
If a president is at the top in November and hemorrhages key voters, it could hurt other Democratic candidates.
Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, a leader among liberals, warned that the poll could be a sign of trouble for the party overall.
Democrats are trying to regain control of the House of Representatives next year and maintain their majority in the Senate. Of the five states in the poll, all but Georgia have senators on the ballot with Biden in the 2024 election.
“This is the first time I’ve felt like the 2024 election is in deep trouble for the president and for our democratic control, which is essential moving forward,” Jayapal said this weekend on MSNBC’s Inside.
Other lawmakers agreed.
“I was concerned before these polls, and I’m concerned now,” Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “These presidential races have been very close over the last few terms. No one is going to get a runaway election here. It will take a lot of hard work, concentration and resources.”
But Biden’s defenders argue the results are too early to be conclusive.
‘I can’t believe we’re doing this again so soon. Polls this early are good for clicks and tweets, not good for predicting outcomes,” Obama adviser Jim Messina wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“Joe Biden’s career and agenda have been declared dead more times than you can count. For a large portion of voters, they don’t even agree with the fact that Republicans are going to force Trump on them again. Once that reality manifests and the contrast becomes clear, the dynamics of this race become more real as well,” Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson told DailyMail.com.
Democratic Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington state, a leader among liberals, warned that the poll could be a sign of trouble for the party at large
And Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, wrote on –Biden’s likely opponent faces 91 charges in multiple jurisdictions. –The economy is clearly improving, but it will take many months for voters to perceive and believe this. Stay calm. Continue.’
Rosenberg also argued that with all the action on the Republican side of the primary race, Republican voters are more engaged, which drives up the numbers for Trump. Biden has faced primary challengers, but none who have broken through yet.
“Republican voters are paying more attention,” Rosenberg said. “The burden is on Trump, not Biden.”
He pointed out that Trump faces numerous legal challenges and could be a convicted felon on Election Day — an argument many in the Biden administration are making.
Rosenberg analyzed the recent election in a piece on his website, noting that Democrats exceeded expectations in 2022 and, in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, which overturned abortion rights, posted strong results — even in the red states.
However, Trump continues to get good marks on his handling of the economy, which voters list as one of their most important issues.
But other Democrats were even more blunt, suggesting Biden should consider dropping out of the 2024 race after another brutal poll.
“Only Joe Biden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will become the Democratic Party’s nominee,” David Axelrod said on X, formerly Twitter.
‘What he has to decide is whether that is wise; Whether it is in HIS interest or in that of the country?’
Axelrod led Barack Obama’s successful presidential campaign, a victory that propelled Biden to the vice presidency.
And Donna Brazile, former chair of the Democratic National Committee, said the polls should be a “wake-up call.”
“I would like to say again a wake-up call for Democrats to be reminded that they need to get back out there, pull back the coalition that enabled Joe Biden in 2020 to break new ground, especially in Arizona and Georgia, but more importantly, support that coalition,” she said on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “Without that coalition it will be a very, very difficult race.”
The NYT/Siena poll of 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was conducted between October 22 and November 3. The margin of error for each state is between 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points.