A new coalition on the left, the New Popular Front, also poses a challenge to the pro-business Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic | Photo: Shutterstock
French voters around the world will cast their ballots Sunday in the first round of an extraordinary parliamentary election that could see the French government fall into the hands of nationalist, far-right forces for the first time since the Nazi era.
The outcome of the two rounds of elections, which end on July 7, could have implications for European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine and the way France’s nuclear arsenal and global military power are managed.
Many French voters are frustrated with inflation and economic concerns, and with President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, which they see as arrogant and out of touch with their lives. Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration party Rassemblement National has tapped into and fanned that discontent, particularly through online platforms like TikTok, dominating all opinion polls ahead of the elections.
A new coalition on the left, the New Popular Front, also poses a challenge to the pro-business Macron and his centrist alliance Together for the Republic.
After a blitz campaign marred by rising hate speech, voting began early in France’s overseas territories, with polling stations in mainland France opening at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) on Sunday. The first vote predictions are expected at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), when the last polls close, with the first official results expected later on Sunday evening.
Macron called the snap elections after his party was trounced in the European Parliament elections in June by the Rassemblement National, which has historical ties to racism and anti-Semitism and is hostile to France’s Muslim community. It was a bold gamble that French voters complacent about the European Union elections would be galvanized to run for moderate forces in a national election to keep the far right out of power.
Instead, polls suggest the National Rally is gaining support and has a chance of winning a parliamentary majority. In that scenario, Macron would be expected to appoint 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan Bardella as prime minister in an uneasy power-sharing system known as “cohabitation.”
Macron has said he will not step down before his presidential term ends in 2027, but cohabitation would weaken him both at home and on the world stage.
The results of the first round will provide an idea of overall voter sentiment, but not necessarily the overall composition of the next National Assembly. Predictions are extremely difficult because of the complicated voting system and because parties will work between the two rounds to build alliances in some constituencies or withdraw from others.
In the past, such tactical maneuvers helped keep far-right candidates from power. But now support for Le Pen’s party has spread deep and wide.
Bardella, who has no experience in government, says he would use prime ministerial powers to stop Macron from continuing to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons for the war with Russia. His party has historical ties to Russia.
The party has also questioned the right to citizenship for people born in France and wants to restrict the rights of French citizens with dual nationality. Critics say this undermines basic human rights and threatens France’s democratic ideals.
Meanwhile, huge promises from Rassemblement National and especially the left-wing coalition on government spending have shocked markets and raised concerns about France’s heavy debt burden, which has already been criticized by EU watchdogs.
(Only the headline and image of this report may have been reworked by Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is automatically generated from a syndicated feed.)
First print: June 30, 2024 | 10:20 am IST