Escalation that could scupper latest hopes of ceasefire deal

The flood of rockets, missiles and drones fired from Lebanon into Israel yesterday morning may have been nothing more than a harbinger.

The shelling could have been worse if a series of Israeli airstrikes had not been carried out earlier to thwart Hezbollah’s plans for an even larger wave of rockets.

The Israeli Air Force has attacked thousands of rocket launchers and bunkers containing everything from old Russian Katyusha systems to modern Iranian missiles.

Many of the rockets fired from Lebanon can cause serious damage if they hit a target, but they are “usually” easy to detect and destroy by Israeli air defenses.

However, these latest salvos further weaken Israel’s defensive capabilities, particularly the Iron Dome system, increasing Hezbollah’s chances of hitting key targets with more powerful rockets in the future.

The Islamist leadership claims to have damaged buildings deep inside Israel, as far as the southern outskirts of Tel Aviv, and even hit a military base and patrol boat further north.

We can’t be sure. Israel has banned the publication of photos of bomb damage, both on TV and social media, to prevent Hezbollah from making a damage assessment.

A state of emergency has also been declared.

In any case, Hezbollah’s attack had been expected for weeks, in retaliation for Israel’s double assassination of one of its commanders and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran last month. The revenge attack was postponed because of the holy Shiite festival of Arbaeen, when up to two million pilgrims travel overland from Lebanon and Iran to Karbala in Iraq.

Many observers believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is counting on a constant state of conflict to keep him in power

Now that their journey is over, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards – the real masters of Hezbollah – has warned that war will now really begin.

Israel is well prepared, but yesterday’s preemptive strikes may not be enough to ward off the onslaught. Hezbollah is estimated to have some 150,000 rockets in its well-hidden arsenal. This escalation also seems certain to end US efforts to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Central to this is the release of the surviving hostages seized during the Hamas rampage on October 7.

Both sides say they do not want all-out war. But neither is willing to be the first to turn the other cheek and stop retaliating – so war looms. If it does, it will be on a scale that dwarfs the unimaginable civilian cost of Israel’s assault on Gaza over the past 10 months.

Many observers believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is counting on a constant state of conflict to stay in power.

Until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, an uneasy truce will remain in Israeli politics. If the fighting stops, Netanyahu will be ousted by his rivals and will be prosecuted and possibly jailed on corruption charges.

America has pledged to support Israel in any war against Iran. It has already deployed massive naval forces, including three nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, in the seas around the Middle East.

Thanks to our military bases in Cyprus, just over 100 miles from the nearest missile launchers in Lebanon, the UK would also be drawn into the war. Not only our armed forces, but also expats and holidaymakers in Cyprus would be at risk.

Last Friday, Hamas announced that Israelis in Europe and elsewhere, and by extension all Jews, are now being considered targets for terrorist attacks abroad.

Meanwhile, schools in northern Israel have been closed and some 100,000 Israelis have been evacuated from the border with Lebanon.

The threats to peace are not limited to Israel and Lebanon, and fears are growing that the escalating violence could drag us and many others into the conflict.

• Mark Almond is director from the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford