Erdogan’s rule over Turkey is characterized by autocracy and widespread division… writes MARK ALMOND

There is no doubt that the West will be shocked by the re-election of President Erdogan. He is an Islamist president in a country with a secular constitution whose rule is characterized by autocracy, widespread division and policies designed to gain support among conservative Muslims.

And despite Turkey being a member of NATO and an EU candidate country, Erdogan has turned his nation from a solid pro-Western ally to a less than reliable ally.

He has spoken about his special relationship with Putin and refuses to join Western sanctions against Russia. And he has bought Russian anti-aircraft systems, sparking anger and concern within the NATO alliance.

Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate his victory outside AK Party offices in Istanbul

Erdogan is taking full advantage of Turkey’s position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, putting both NATO and the EU in the eye. He boasts that Turkey is in a unique position to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, but prevents Sweden from joining NATO.

He uses the millions of refugees in Turkey as a threat and warns that he will open the borders if the EU does not comply with his demands.

Tragically, there is little chance of Erdogan softening now that he has secured another five-year term at age 69. Nor that he will relax in the absurdly over-the-top 1,000-room presidential palace he built for himself in the capital Ankara.

Erdogan is already the longest-serving leader in the country’s history. But like his friend Putin, 70, he has become more aggressive with age. He is an old man in a hurry to complete his agenda to turn Turkey into one of the world’s top economies, and he has promised massive spending plans for schools, universities and defense to do so.

He sees this year as crucial, not least because it marks the 100th anniversary of Mustafa Atatürk’s founding of the modern Turkish Republic in 1923. But where Atatürk promised to restore greatness by breaking with religious traditions and embracing Western secularism, Erdogan has chosen the opposite path.

After the election vote had largely opened, Erdogan voters began celebrating with Turkish flags in the streets

Supporters of Erdogan react on the day of the second round of the presidential elections in Istanbul

During his 20-year tenure, the number of religious schools has increased, the long-standing ban on headscarves in universities has been lifted, and members of the LGBT community have been regularly denounced by Erdogan and his clerics. His mantra is that a good Turk is a good Muslim – and by repeating it loud and clear, especially among conservative people in his country’s impoverished interior, he has brewed a potent mix of ultra-patriotism and religious fundamentalism. However, the shine will likely come from Erdogan’s triumph.

Clouds are gathering over the economy. Runaway inflation is exacerbated by a sharp fall in the value of the lira, making energy imports more expensive. The central bank has run out of reserves and relies on oil regimes in the Arab Gulf states to subsidize it.

Not even the deep pockets of the Saudis can save 80 million Turks for long. Perhaps a run on the currency will force Erdogan to rethink his economic policies. However, past form suggests he will double down in a crisis. I suspect he will use Turkey’s central location to create an international crisis on its borders to distract the Turks from their domestic problems.

The army already occupies part of Syria and regularly bombs Kurds in northern Iraq. Yesterday Turkish drones were in action in Libya. Tensions with Greece remain high. It is depressing that Erdogan can fuel any of these conflicts at will. There is nothing to celebrate for the West in its victory.

• Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute at Oxford