England will not be ‘smoke-free’ until 2039 and will miss a key public health target in almost a decade, an analysis has found.
Although smoking rates are falling, they are not falling fast enough to achieve the government’s ambition for England to be “smoke-free” by 2030, according to Cancer Research UK (CRUK).
And the wide socio-economic inequality in smoking – with poorer people more likely to take up smoking than the better off – will persist for decades, the research shows.
In 2019, the government announced its intention for England to be ‘smoke-free’ by 2030, which it defined as 5% of adults, or fewer, still smoking. It is an important measure of progress towards improving the health of the population, as smoking causes almost 80,000 deaths every year from cancer, heart disease and other conditions across Britain and costs billions to the public to treat. NHS.
However, CRUK’s latest analysis of when the 5% target will be reached concludes it won’t be until 2039, even though smoking rates are expected to continue to fall in coming years.
“Our updated projections, based on the continuation of recent trends, indicate that smoking prevalence in England will continue to fall, but not fast enough to achieve the stated smoke-free ambition.
“If recent trends continue, England will reach an average adult smoking prevalence of 5% by 2039 – almost a decade behind schedule,” the report says.
Around 6 million adults in Britain – fewer than one in eight (11.9%) – smoke, the lowest rate on record and down from 20.2% in 2011, according to the latest study. Data from the Office for National Statistics. England has the lowest prevalence (11.6%) – 4.9 million people still smoke there – and Scotland the highest (13.5%).
Although this downward trend is expected to continue, CRUK’s forecasts show that even this will not reduce the so-called “deprivation gap” in smoking habits.
For example, smoking prevalence is expected to reach the target of 5% among the best-performing tenths of the population by 2025, but will still hover around the same figure of 5% for the poorest tenths until 2050.
Moreover, even when the smoke-free target is finally achieved in 2039, almost four times as many of the poorest people will still use tobacco than the richest.
“When England is expected to become smoke-free by 2039, of the remaining 5% of people who still smoke, more than 459,000 people in the most deprived tenth of the population will still smoke, compared to around 119,000 in the least deprived tenth part.
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“By 2039, almost two in ten (17.47%) people who smoke in England are estimated to live in the most deprived tenth of areas,” the charity’s analysis shows. For comparison: in 2039, 4.54% of the affluent tenth of the population will still smoke.
CRUK chief executive Michelle Mitchell urged the government to publish its long-promised tobacco and vaping bill as soon as possible to help accelerate the shift away from smoking.
“Every day around 160 people in Britain are diagnosed with cancer as a result of smoking. The government must prioritize the health of the nation by enacting the Tobacco and Vaping Bill without further delay. Continued hesitation could disrupt the path to a smoke-free Britain.”
The Guardian recently revealed that the bill has been postponed due to opposition within Number 10 to go ahead with a plan to ban smoking in some outdoor areas such as pub gardens.
The Department of Health and Social Care did not respond directly to CRUK’s findings. A spokesperson said: “Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death, disability and ill health, claiming the lives of 80,000 people every year in Britain.
“The Tobacco and Vaping Bill will be the biggest public health intervention in a generation, tackling the harms of smoking, breaking the cycle of addiction and paving the way for a smoke-free Britain.”