End of El Nino could lead to MORE hurricanes in 2024 as global sea temperatures rise – despite TWENTY named storms developing in 2023
America will likely be hit by more hurricanes next year as weather systems dissipate, bringing warmer water and more fuel for storms.
Forecasters have warned that with El Nino coming to an end and global sea temperatures expected to rise, there is ‘high potential’ for more hurricanes in 2024.
When El Nino is present, such as in 2023, it leads to cooler temperatures, which usually means fewer and less powerful storms. In 2023, twenty named storms developed in the Atlantic Ocean.
Seven of these were classified as hurricanes, but only three of them developed into major hurricanes. Harold, Idalia and Ophelia devastated parts of Texas, Florida and the East Coast, including New Jersey, Virginia and New York.
Some forecasters say more than 20 storms will hit in 2024 as temperatures rise, raising the potential for a busy hurricane season.
Forecasters have warned that with El Nino coming to an end and global sea temperatures expected to rise, there is a ‘high potential’ for more hurricanes in 2024.
Tropical Storm Harold made landfall in Texas as a million coastal residents were under a severe weather warning. It was one of 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2023
Researchers say the cooling El Nino pattern is not expected to be present in 2024. The year after an El Nino pattern typically becomes a “weak” La Nina year and leads to higher temperatures the following year.
La Nina also leads to the formation of more hurricanes in the deep tropics, which have a higher chance of becoming devastating storms and reaching the US, according to the National Weather Service.
In El Nino years, there are typically 4.9 storms that make landfall in the US. In La Nina years, that figure jumps to 6.8. Hurricane Georges in 1998 is an example of a La Nina storm. That Category 4 storm resulted in more than 600 deaths and $9 billion in damage.
Hurricane experts have said that even with these forecasts, it is still too early to know for sure how many storms will come in the coming Atlantic hurricane season.
It is also unknown how warm the Atlantic Ocean will become as global temperatures continue to rise due to climate change.
Families in Bellview, Florida fill sandbags ahead of Tropical Storm Idalia in August 2023
In 2023, seventeen formed storms did not make landfall in the US, but drifted out to sea. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationthe 2023 season had the fourth most storms in a single year since 1950.
But three of them made their impact felt on the East Coast.
Hurricane Harold hit the US on August 22, when it made landfall in Texas and sent a million coastal residents under a severe weather warning.
The storm also hit Padre Island after forming overnight in the Gulf of Mexico before reaching the Lone Star State.
Harold brought heavy rain to parts of South Texas and created flood watches in the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend regions. It also created a minor flood watch near Ruidoso, New Mexico.
Winds during the storm reached 35 mph as authorities deployed emergency resources including rescue boats, search and rescue teams and Texas National Guard platoons to help deal with the storm’s impact.
Just days later, Hurricane Idalia roared into land as it devastated Florida on August 30.
The Category 3 hurricane became the strongest storm to hit the Sunshine State in more than 125 years. CNN.
The National Hurrican Center warned of an increased risk of life-threatening storm surges of 10 feet high and dangerous winds of 150 mph in Florida during Idalia.
Extremely warm ocean waters allowed Idalia to unleash his anger and reveal his power as trees and structures were damaged in the Big Bend state and parts of Georgia.
According to the National Weather Service“The hurricane made landfall during low tide, and without that storm surge, storm surge values could easily have been 4 to 4 feet higher if Idalia had made landfall at high tide just 4 to 6 hours later.”
Idalia was the fourth major hurricane to hit Florida in the past seven years, following Irma in 2017, Michael in 2018 and Ian, which peaked at Category 5 last September.
Hurricane Idalia tore through Florida’s Gulf Coast as it barreled through the state’s Big Bend region
Heavy tides seen in New Jersey’s Seaside Park after Hurricane Ophelia in September
Hurricane Ophelia was next when it made landfall in the state on September 23, as it first made its way to eastern North Carolina before shifting to southern Virginia.
The storm’s rainy conditions then moved to the East Coast in New Jersey and New York, causing flooding.
In New Jersey, the wind and deluge caused disruption, and waves of 10 feet high were recorded near the coast.
Officials at the Cleveland Park Metro Station in Washington, D.C. had sandbagged the area and all other flood-prone stations in preparation for the storm.
The Big Apple was hit hard by heavy rainstorms, leaving drivers stranded on the streets and flooding of subway stations.
In North Carolina, a total of 2,600 people were without power, and in New Jersey, 5,800 people were blacked out.
Of all the hurricanes that occurred in 2023, only the “hyperactive” seasons of 2005, 2020 and 2021 had more.
Matthe Rosencrans, NOAA’s chief hurricane forecaster, said, “The Atlantic Basin produced the most named storms of any El Niño-influenced year in modern history.”