El Niño could turn into a ‘super’ event before summer and bring months of scorching temperatures to Australia

The scorching temperatures in the eastern states over the holiday weekend are just a taste of things to come as the El Niño weather pattern threatens to turn into a ‘super’ event even before summer begins in Australia.

A previous ‘super’ event in Australia led to one of Victoria’s driest summers on record in 1997-98, and next summer is expected to be even worse.

With Sunday’s NRL Grand Final set to be the hottest on record as the mercury soars to 36 degrees Celsius in Sydney, it already feels like summer and there are growing fears of a repeat of the devastating bushfires of October 2019 to February 2020.

El Niño is the opposite of La Niña – which causes the flooding Australia has seen in recent years – and causes hot, dry weather and increases the risk of bushfires.

While the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) only definitively declared Australia to be in an El Niño pattern last week, it follows a period of global weather records, deadly heatwaves and devastating flooding in the Northern Hemisphere.

And now the US National Center for Atmospheric Research latest prediction has warned it could reach ‘super’ El Niño strength levels previously linked to devastating drought and wildfires.

“These conditions are associated with an increase in fire danger and the risk of extreme heat,” said BoM climate services manager Dr. Karl Braganza.

‘Both climate factors have a significant impact on Australia’s climate, specifically promoting warmer and drier conditions, especially in spring, but also into early summer.

“It is now really up to individuals and communities to prepare for a summer full of heat and fire danger.”

The Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has also warned of what is to come.

“In addition to the increase in surface temperatures, the strong El Niño in 2023-2024 is expected to trigger a cascade of climate crises,” said Professor Zheng Fei.

“This summer will be hotter than average, and certainly hotter than the last three years,” Dr. Braganza said news.com.au.

“Importantly, now that El Niño has settled into that pattern in the Pacific, our confidence increases that this pattern will continue through the end of the summer.”

The Northern Hemisphere summer of 2023 was the hottest on record, with hundreds of millions of people affected by heat waves that hit Europe, Japan and the southwestern US.

In the city of Phoenix, Arizona, it was 43 degrees or higher for 54 days during the summer, including every day of July.

A new BoM assessment shows that the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean is attaching to rising surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

‘This coupling is characteristic of an El Niño event and ensures that an event is strengthened and maintained for a longer period of time.

“El Niño typically leads to less spring rainfall in eastern Australia,” the Bureau warned.

An El Niño weather pattern usually peaks in December, but next summer is not typical.

‘Climate models indicate that this El Niño will likely last until the end of February.

‘El Niño typically leads to reduced rainfall in spring and early summer in eastern Australia, and warmer days in the southern two-thirds of the country.’

The weather in Australia is also affected by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). A ‘positive’ dipole occurs when the ocean off the coast of Africa is hotter than off Indonesia.

“A positive IOD generally results in reduced spring rainfall across central and south-eastern Australia,” the B0M said.

‘All models predict that this positive IOD will last at least until the end of spring.

‘When a positive IOD and El Niño occur together, their drying effect tends to be stronger and more widespread across Australia.’