Eastern Europe must not lag behind on the green transition

Last year, much of Europe was hit by a severe drought, and some scientists claimed so the worst in 500 years. In France, a state of emergency was declared in five northern provinces; in Spain, water reservoirs fell to 36 percent of capacity; in Italy, the level of the country’s largest river Po was six times lower than normal.

Eastern Europe was also affected. In Hungary, lakes and rivers disappeared as 90 percent of the country suffered from the drought. In Poland, the lack of rain had a devastating impact on agriculture, with the sector losing some €1.35 billion due to lower yields. In Romania, there was a seven-fold increase in forest fires.

Despite these harmful effects, national policies in Central and Eastern European countries do not reflect the climate emergency we are experiencing. Governments have struggled with meeting climate goals and implementing green policy goals within the European community.

Last year, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provided justification for sidelining the green transition as the entire continent faced a major energy crisis. In the battle to keep the lights on, keep the houses warm and the industry afloat, decarbonisation and greening have faded into the background.

As a result, generation of polluting energy has increased in some parts of eastern Europe. Poland, which used coal for 70 percent of its energy mix before the war, increased production of thermal coal – the most polluting fossil fuel – and subsidized the use of coal for heating households. Romania also turned to coal, postponing the retirement of 660-megawatt coal units and clearing 100 hectares (247 acres) of forest to expand a lignite mine.

Other countries are increasingly reliant on nuclear energy, which the jury is still out on whether this is consistent with the principles of the green transition. In January, Slovakia put online a new nuclear unit Mochovce 3, which will soon be joined by Mochovce 4, while the Czech Republic has moved forward WesTer partnerships to build a new Dukovany nuclear power plant. In cooperation with Russia, new units are being built on the banks of the Danube in Hungary as part of the Paks complex.

But the region was already lagging behind green transition targets before the energy crisis. According to Eurostat, the use of renewable energy sources before the war in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary was below the EU average. These countries may struggle to meet the EU’s next renewable energy target – 32 percent by 2030. CO2 emissions reductions in the region over the past two decades have also been inadequate; on average, Eastern European countries have reduced them by about 15 percent, compared to Western Europe’s 25 percent.

Does this dragging along with climate action mean that citizens of Central and Eastern European countries are less concerned about climate change than their counterparts in the West? Not really. In a 2021 Eurobarometer survey, respondents from the region answered overwhelmingly in the affirmative when asked whether climate change is a serious problem. In Hungary, Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovakia only 4-5 percent said it is not a serious problem, while in Poland 7 percent of respondents said it is, which is equal to the EU average.

But Eastern Europeans are concerned about the losses their economies may suffer during the green transition. A 2021 poll conducted by the European Investment Bank found that 60 percent of Czechs, 63 percent of Slovaks and 53 percent of Poles believe that climate policies will shrink the economy and that 59 percent of Bulgarians and 54 percent of the Romanians think they will cut more jobs than they will create. In comparison, 44 percent of EU residents believe both statements to be true.

Indeed, heavy industries, which are generally large employers and make up a significant portion of national economies in Eastern Europe, will find it difficult to adapt to the realities of the green transition; many will have to undergo major structural overhauls or even close, leading to significant job losses. In this way, the EU’s green ambition is often seen as an existential threat to the functioning of the region’s economic models.

At the same time, several new regulations enacted by Brussels that would require households to give up cheaper, more polluting consumer products and services are meeting resistance in the poorer countries of the East, where the “green” alternatives are seen as unaffordable.

Local politicians like to play on this fear. Some present the green agenda as yet another policy in which the EU carelessly ignores the problems of the East; others paint it as an elitist idea too far-fetched for ordinary citizens. Political parties that may be receptive to a green policy are cautious because they understand that what is at stake is a comprehensive economic transformation – raising the bar for skills, jobs and innovation – which can be a formidable undertaking in an election cycle of four years.

The east-west green divide can also be felt in support for green parties in national politics. While the Greens are part of coalition governments in countries such as Austria, Germany, Finland and Ireland, in Eastern Europe they struggle to jump over barriers to enter parliament.

That said, thanks to the EU, Central and Eastern Europe have access to significant funds that can help them with the green transition. The national recovery plans – the centerpiece of post-pandemic EU funding – combine cash disbursements with reforms in several policy areas, including education, innovation, energy efficiency and greening the economy. Countries must reserve at least 37 percent of the resources for achieving climate goals.

But some of the biggest emitters in the region – notably Poland or Hungary – had their recovery fund allocations frozen by Brussels due to democratic backsliding. Meanwhile, this year Bulgaria chose not to use another source of EU funding for green policies: the Just Transition Scheme.

While green policies in Central and Eastern Europe may not be an easy sell, governments need to understand that the green transition is crucial for the region to maintain its international competitiveness and build economic resilience to weather future climate shocks. Complacency can be costly: it can hinder future gains in the living standards and well-being of Central and Eastern Europeans and contribute to the climate crisis on a global scale.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial view of Al Jazeera.