Earth is ‘off course’ to limit global warming to 1.5°C, scientists warn – as satellites show ‘very large rise’ in CO2 around the world
Global warming is rapidly spiraling out of control, the Met Office has warned.
According to the forecaster, Earth is ‘not on track’ to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) – a key target set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Paris Agreement.
Last year, measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showed the fastest annual increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) since records began in 1958.
In addition, satellite measurements showed a ‘very large increase’ in CO2 around the world.
These were due to widespread hot, dry conditions, partly linked to El Niño and partly to other factors – including climate change, the Met Office said.
The research comes just a week after it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record.
“Last week it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with annual average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time,” said Professor Richard Betts, who led the production of the forecast.
‘While this does not mean that we have not met the Paris Agreement target, as that would require warming of 1.5°C over a longer period and we may see a slightly cooler year in 2025, the long-term warming trend will continue because CO2 is still accumulating in the atmosphere.’
Last year, measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showed the fastest annual increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) since records began in 1958.

The research comes just a week after it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record. Pictured: Wildfires in the West Hills section of Los Angeles on January 9
The measurements at Mauna Loa showed an increase in CO2 emissions of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) in 2024.
This easily exceeded the Met Office forecast of 2.84 ppm (±0.54 ppm).
Worryingly, if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F), IPCC calculations indicate that CO2 emissions must decrease by 1.8 ppm per year.
It’s not all doom and gloom.
Looking ahead, the CO2 increase between 2024 and 2025 is expected to be less extreme than last year at 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm.
According to the Met Office, this is due to a partial strengthening of carbon sinks associated with a shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions.
But even this slower increase will be too fast to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
“La Niña conditions are expected to cause forests and other ecosystems to absorb more carbon than last year, temporarily slowing the increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere,” Professor Betts added.

Worryingly, if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C (2.7°F), IPCC calculations indicate that CO2 emissions must decrease by 1.8 ppm per year
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‘To stop global warming, however, it is necessary that the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the air comes to a complete halt and then begins to decline.
‘Large, rapid emissions reductions can limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5°C.
‘But this requires urgent international action.’
The new research comes just a week after a report published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) found that temperatures last year were 0.12°C (0.22°F) above 2023, the previous warmest year on record.
That makes 2024 the first calendar year ever to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
While this one year doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement targets have already been missed, experts say humanity is now “dangerously close” to this milestone.
The data shows that an exceptionally warm start to the year brought the average global air temperature to 15.1 °C (59.2 °F) in 2024.
While temporary patterns such as El Niño have helped push temperatures to extremes, scientists say human-induced climate change remains the “main driver” of extreme temperatures.
And with the rate at which carbon dioxide is entering the atmosphere even higher than in previous years, planetary warming shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.
Dr. Friederike Otto, a climate policy expert from Imperial College London, said: ‘This record should be a reality check.
“The climate is warming to levels we have been trying to avoid for years as countries continue to burn vast amounts of oil, gas and coal.”